Official weather observations from May 17 confirm that Shanghai's lowest temperature reached exactly 19°C, aligning with the market's overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for that outcome. This consensus stems from real-time data reported by the China Meteorological Administration, which showed mild spring conditions with no significant cold air intrusions or nocturnal cooling events. Traders have priced in the high likelihood of this reading holding as the official minimum, consistent with historical May averages for the region around 18–20°C. Minor adjustments could still occur if the final verified station data or quality-controlled reports revise the precise low by a degree, though such changes remain unlikely given the stability of the measurements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 17?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 17?
19°C 99.4%
18°C <1%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
$11,193 Vol.
$11,193 Vol.
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
99%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
19°C 99.4%
18°C <1%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
$11,193 Vol.
$11,193 Vol.
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
$781 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$626 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$563 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$943 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$952 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$2,045 Vol.
99%
20°C
$2,433 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$957 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$528 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$588 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$778 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official weather observations from May 17 confirm that Shanghai's lowest temperature reached exactly 19°C, aligning with the market's overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for that outcome. This consensus stems from real-time data reported by the China Meteorological Administration, which showed mild spring conditions with no significant cold air intrusions or nocturnal cooling events. Traders have priced in the high likelihood of this reading holding as the official minimum, consistent with historical May averages for the region around 18–20°C. Minor adjustments could still occur if the final verified station data or quality-controlled reports revise the precise low by a degree, though such changes remain unlikely given the stability of the measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Volume
$11,193End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official weather observations from May 17 confirm that Shanghai's lowest temperature reached exactly 19°C, aligning with the market's overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for that outcome. This consensus stems from real-time data reported by the China Meteorological Administration, which showed mild spring conditions with no significant cold air intrusions or nocturnal cooling events. Traders have priced in the high likelihood of this reading holding as the official minimum, consistent with historical May averages for the region around 18–20°C. Minor adjustments could still occur if the final verified station data or quality-controlled reports revise the precise low by a degree, though such changes remain unlikely given the stability of the measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$11,193End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDOfficial weather observations from May 17 confirm that Shanghai's lowest temperature reached exactly 19°C, aligning with the market's overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for that outcome. This consensus stems from real-time data reported by the China Meteorological Administration, which showed mild spring conditions with no significant cold air intrusions or nocturnal cooling events. Traders have priced in the high likelihood of this reading holding as the official minimum, consistent with historical May averages for the region around 18–20°C. Minor adjustments could still occur if the final verified station data or quality-controlled reports revise the precise low by a degree, though such changes remain unlikely given the stability of the measurements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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