Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project a minimum temperature of 23°C for Tokyo on August 14 under partly cloudy conditions with light northeasterly winds and scattered showers. This aligns closely with the August climatological normal of 23.6°C, where persistent high humidity and the urban heat island effect from Tokyo's dense infrastructure typically restrict overnight radiative cooling to maintain lows near this threshold. Ensemble model consensus shows limited variability around these values. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include unexpected clear-sky intervals promoting greater heat loss, stronger winds enhancing mixing, or late forecast revisions from official monitoring updates before the daily minimum is recorded. Trader consensus at 100% for 23°C reflects this strong alignment between current observations, historical baselines, and near-term model guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 14?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 14?
23°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$11,604 Vol.
$11,604 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Yes
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
23°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$11,604 Vol.
$11,604 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
19°C or below
$329 Vol.
No
20°C
$335 Vol.
No
21°C
$540 Vol.
No
22°C
$1,001 Vol.
No
23°C
$2,089 Vol.
Yes
24°C
$2,512 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,406 Vol.
No
26°C
$632 Vol.
No
27°C
$1,220 Vol.
No
28°C
$227 Vol.
No
29°C or higher
$314 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project a minimum temperature of 23°C for Tokyo on August 14 under partly cloudy conditions with light northeasterly winds and scattered showers. This aligns closely with the August climatological normal of 23.6°C, where persistent high humidity and the urban heat island effect from Tokyo's dense infrastructure typically restrict overnight radiative cooling to maintain lows near this threshold. Ensemble model consensus shows limited variability around these values. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include unexpected clear-sky intervals promoting greater heat loss, stronger winds enhancing mixing, or late forecast revisions from official monitoring updates before the daily minimum is recorded. Trader consensus at 100% for 23°C reflects this strong alignment between current observations, historical baselines, and near-term model guidance.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$11,604End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project a minimum temperature of 23°C for Tokyo on August 14 under partly cloudy conditions with light northeasterly winds and scattered showers. This aligns closely with the August climatological normal of 23.6°C, where persistent high humidity and the urban heat island effect from Tokyo's dense infrastructure typically restrict overnight radiative cooling to maintain lows near this threshold. Ensemble model consensus shows limited variability around these values. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include unexpected clear-sky intervals promoting greater heat loss, stronger winds enhancing mixing, or late forecast revisions from official monitoring updates before the daily minimum is recorded. Trader consensus at 100% for 23°C reflects this strong alignment between current observations, historical baselines, and near-term model guidance.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,604End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project a minimum temperature of 23°C for Tokyo on August 14 under partly cloudy conditions with light northeasterly winds and scattered showers. This aligns closely with the August climatological normal of 23.6°C, where persistent high humidity and the urban heat island effect from Tokyo's dense infrastructure typically restrict overnight radiative cooling to maintain lows near this threshold. Ensemble model consensus shows limited variability around these values. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include unexpected clear-sky intervals promoting greater heat loss, stronger winds enhancing mixing, or late forecast revisions from official monitoring updates before the daily minimum is recorded. Trader consensus at 100% for 23°C reflects this strong alignment between current observations, historical baselines, and near-term model guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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