Tokyo's August minimum temperatures typically hover near the long-term average of 24°C under the influence of the prevailing subtropical high-pressure system and warm, humid maritime air masses. Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for August 5, 2026, project a clear-to-cloudy day with a maximum of 30°C and overnight lows aligning with the daily normal minimum of 23.9°C, consistent with recent model consensus from regional guidance. This strong alignment with climatological baselines underpins the market's 99% implied probability for exactly 24°C. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected nocturnal cooling event, such as a rapid shift in steering winds or localized radiative cooling under clearer skies than anticipated, though current observational data and ensemble spreads show limited support for deviations below 23°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 5?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 5?
24°C 99.0%
23°C 1.0%
22°C <1%
20°C <1%
$10,901 Vol.
$10,901 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
99%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
24°C 99.0%
23°C 1.0%
22°C <1%
20°C <1%
$10,901 Vol.
$10,901 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
18°C or below
$297 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$461 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$600 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$543 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,968 Vol.
1%
23°C
$1,660 Vol.
1%
24°C
$2,378 Vol.
99%
25°C
$1,247 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$891 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$497 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$359 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Tokyo's August minimum temperatures typically hover near the long-term average of 24°C under the influence of the prevailing subtropical high-pressure system and warm, humid maritime air masses. Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for August 5, 2026, project a clear-to-cloudy day with a maximum of 30°C and overnight lows aligning with the daily normal minimum of 23.9°C, consistent with recent model consensus from regional guidance. This strong alignment with climatological baselines underpins the market's 99% implied probability for exactly 24°C. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected nocturnal cooling event, such as a rapid shift in steering winds or localized radiative cooling under clearer skies than anticipated, though current observational data and ensemble spreads show limited support for deviations below 23°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$10,901End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Tokyo's August minimum temperatures typically hover near the long-term average of 24°C under the influence of the prevailing subtropical high-pressure system and warm, humid maritime air masses. Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for August 5, 2026, project a clear-to-cloudy day with a maximum of 30°C and overnight lows aligning with the daily normal minimum of 23.9°C, consistent with recent model consensus from regional guidance. This strong alignment with climatological baselines underpins the market's 99% implied probability for exactly 24°C. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected nocturnal cooling event, such as a rapid shift in steering winds or localized radiative cooling under clearer skies than anticipated, though current observational data and ensemble spreads show limited support for deviations below 23°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,901End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tokyo's August minimum temperatures typically hover near the long-term average of 24°C under the influence of the prevailing subtropical high-pressure system and warm, humid maritime air masses. Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for August 5, 2026, project a clear-to-cloudy day with a maximum of 30°C and overnight lows aligning with the daily normal minimum of 23.9°C, consistent with recent model consensus from regional guidance. This strong alignment with climatological baselines underpins the market's 99% implied probability for exactly 24°C. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected nocturnal cooling event, such as a rapid shift in steering winds or localized radiative cooling under clearer skies than anticipated, though current observational data and ensemble spreads show limited support for deviations below 23°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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