**Latest ensemble forecasts from GFS and European models indicate overnight lows in Warsaw on August 29 will likely settle between 14–16 °C, with trader consensus tightly clustered around 13–15 °C reflecting model spread and uncertainty in cloud cover and precipitation timing.** Persistent southeasterly flow transitioning to southwesterly winds, combined with morning rain and high humidity (70–90 %), is expected to limit radiative cooling compared to clearer conditions. Hourly guidance shows temperatures bottoming near 16 °C in the pre-dawn hours under mostly cloudy skies, though any clearer breaks could allow brief drops toward 13–14 °C. Historical August minima average near 15 °C, providing context for the narrow distribution; final resolution will hinge on the precise minimum recorded by official stations before sunrise.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 29?
13°C 41%
15°C 41%
21°C or higher 28%
16°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
11°C or below
3%
12°C
8%
13°C
41%
14°C
11%
15°C
41%
16°C
28%
17°C
27%
18°C
11%
19°C
2%
20°C
8%
21°C or higher
28%
13°C 41%
15°C 41%
21°C or higher 28%
16°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
11°C or below
$145 Vol.
3%
12°C
$5 Vol.
8%
13°C
$6 Vol.
41%
14°C
$0 Vol.
11%
15°C
$0 Vol.
41%
16°C
$0 Vol.
28%
17°C
$0 Vol.
27%
18°C
$0 Vol.
11%
19°C
$10 Vol.
2%
20°C
$5 Vol.
8%
21°C or higher
$5 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest ensemble forecasts from GFS and European models indicate overnight lows in Warsaw on August 29 will likely settle between 14–16 °C, with trader consensus tightly clustered around 13–15 °C reflecting model spread and uncertainty in cloud cover and precipitation timing.**
Persistent southeasterly flow transitioning to southwesterly winds, combined with morning rain and high humidity (70–90 %), is expected to limit radiative cooling compared to clearer conditions. Hourly guidance shows temperatures bottoming near 16 °C in the pre-dawn hours under mostly cloudy skies, though any clearer breaks could allow brief drops toward 13–14 °C. Historical August minima average near 15 °C, providing context for the narrow distribution; final resolution will hinge on the precise minimum recorded by official stations before sunrise.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$176End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest ensemble forecasts from GFS and European models indicate overnight lows in Warsaw on August 29 will likely settle between 14–16 °C, with trader consensus tightly clustered around 13–15 °C reflecting model spread and uncertainty in cloud cover and precipitation timing.**
Persistent southeasterly flow transitioning to southwesterly winds, combined with morning rain and high humidity (70–90 %), is expected to limit radiative cooling compared to clearer conditions. Hourly guidance shows temperatures bottoming near 16 °C in the pre-dawn hours under mostly cloudy skies, though any clearer breaks could allow brief drops toward 13–14 °C. Historical August minima average near 15 °C, providing context for the narrow distribution; final resolution will hinge on the precise minimum recorded by official stations before sunrise.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$176End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Latest ensemble forecasts from GFS and European models indicate overnight lows in Warsaw on August 29 will likely settle between 14–16 °C, with trader consensus tightly clustered around 13–15 °C reflecting model spread and uncertainty in cloud cover and precipitation timing.** Persistent southeasterly flow transitioning to southwesterly winds, combined with morning rain and high humidity (70–90 %), is expected to limit radiative cooling compared to clearer conditions. Hourly guidance shows temperatures bottoming near 16 °C in the pre-dawn hours under mostly cloudy skies, though any clearer breaks could allow brief drops toward 13–14 °C. Historical August minima average near 15 °C, providing context for the narrow distribution; final resolution will hinge on the precise minimum recorded by official stations before sunrise.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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