**Trader consensus centers on 11–12°C as the likely minimum for Wellington on September 16, reflecting model consensus for mild overnight conditions under northwesterly flow.** Persistent NW winds of 20–30+ km/h limit radiative cooling by mixing the boundary layer, while variable cloud cover and the city's coastal setting moderate temperature drops. Ensemble guidance and agency forecasts (including Met Office and local analogs) place the overnight low near 11–12°C, with historical September minima in Wellington typically ranging 8–12°C under similar patterns. Minor divergences in model timing or local station microclimates (airport vs. urban sites) create the tight 11°C vs. 12°C split, as even small changes in wind or cloud timing can shift the recorded minimum by 1°C. Final resolution hinges on official MetService observations at the close of the 24-hour period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 16?
10°C 92%
11°C 47%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
92%
11°C
47%
12°C
-
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
10°C 92%
11°C 47%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
7°C or below
$16 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$48 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$16 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$58 Vol.
92%
11°C
$63 Vol.
47%
12°C
$66 Vol.
-
13°C
$2,395 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$16 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$76 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on 11–12°C as the likely minimum for Wellington on September 16, reflecting model consensus for mild overnight conditions under northwesterly flow.** Persistent NW winds of 20–30+ km/h limit radiative cooling by mixing the boundary layer, while variable cloud cover and the city's coastal setting moderate temperature drops. Ensemble guidance and agency forecasts (including Met Office and local analogs) place the overnight low near 11–12°C, with historical September minima in Wellington typically ranging 8–12°C under similar patterns. Minor divergences in model timing or local station microclimates (airport vs. urban sites) create the tight 11°C vs. 12°C split, as even small changes in wind or cloud timing can shift the recorded minimum by 1°C. Final resolution hinges on official MetService observations at the close of the 24-hour period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$2,754End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on 11–12°C as the likely minimum for Wellington on September 16, reflecting model consensus for mild overnight conditions under northwesterly flow.** Persistent NW winds of 20–30+ km/h limit radiative cooling by mixing the boundary layer, while variable cloud cover and the city's coastal setting moderate temperature drops. Ensemble guidance and agency forecasts (including Met Office and local analogs) place the overnight low near 11–12°C, with historical September minima in Wellington typically ranging 8–12°C under similar patterns. Minor divergences in model timing or local station microclimates (airport vs. urban sites) create the tight 11°C vs. 12°C split, as even small changes in wind or cloud timing can shift the recorded minimum by 1°C. Final resolution hinges on official MetService observations at the close of the 24-hour period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,754End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus centers on 11–12°C as the likely minimum for Wellington on September 16, reflecting model consensus for mild overnight conditions under northwesterly flow.** Persistent NW winds of 20–30+ km/h limit radiative cooling by mixing the boundary layer, while variable cloud cover and the city's coastal setting moderate temperature drops. Ensemble guidance and agency forecasts (including Met Office and local analogs) place the overnight low near 11–12°C, with historical September minima in Wellington typically ranging 8–12°C under similar patterns. Minor divergences in model timing or local station microclimates (airport vs. urban sites) create the tight 11°C vs. 12°C split, as even small changes in wind or cloud timing can shift the recorded minimum by 1°C. Final resolution hinges on official MetService observations at the close of the 24-hour period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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