NASA's ongoing monitoring through its Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry impact risk system shows no asteroids or comets on collision courses with Earth in 2026 that could deliver 10 kilotons or more of energy, keeping the market-implied odds of "No" firmly at 83 percent. Recent safe flybys of small near-Earth objects, including house-sized bodies tracked in April and May, have further validated refined orbital models with negligible cumulative probabilities below 0.004 percent, while enhanced detection networks report only minor fireballs well under the threshold. Planetary defense efforts continue to reduce uncertainty around undetected fast-movers, though the roughly decadal historical frequency of such events leaves a modest tail risk priced into the 17 percent "Yes" side ahead of year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
$153,447 Vol.
$153,447 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$153,447 Vol.
$153,447 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's ongoing monitoring through its Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry impact risk system shows no asteroids or comets on collision courses with Earth in 2026 that could deliver 10 kilotons or more of energy, keeping the market-implied odds of "No" firmly at 83 percent. Recent safe flybys of small near-Earth objects, including house-sized bodies tracked in April and May, have further validated refined orbital models with negligible cumulative probabilities below 0.004 percent, while enhanced detection networks report only minor fireballs well under the threshold. Planetary defense efforts continue to reduce uncertainty around undetected fast-movers, though the roughly decadal historical frequency of such events leaves a modest tail risk priced into the 17 percent "Yes" side ahead of year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$153,447End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's ongoing monitoring through its Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry impact risk system shows no asteroids or comets on collision courses with Earth in 2026 that could deliver 10 kilotons or more of energy, keeping the market-implied odds of "No" firmly at 83 percent. Recent safe flybys of small near-Earth objects, including house-sized bodies tracked in April and May, have further validated refined orbital models with negligible cumulative probabilities below 0.004 percent, while enhanced detection networks report only minor fireballs well under the threshold. Planetary defense efforts continue to reduce uncertainty around undetected fast-movers, though the roughly decadal historical frequency of such events leaves a modest tail risk priced into the 17 percent "Yes" side ahead of year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$153,447End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's ongoing monitoring through its Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry impact risk system shows no asteroids or comets on collision courses with Earth in 2026 that could deliver 10 kilotons or more of energy, keeping the market-implied odds of "No" firmly at 83 percent. Recent safe flybys of small near-Earth objects, including house-sized bodies tracked in April and May, have further validated refined orbital models with negligible cumulative probabilities below 0.004 percent, while enhanced detection networks report only minor fireballs well under the threshold. Planetary defense efforts continue to reduce uncertainty around undetected fast-movers, though the roughly decadal historical frequency of such events leaves a modest tail risk priced into the 17 percent "Yes" side ahead of year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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