NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies continues to track thousands of asteroids with its Sentry impact-monitoring system, confirming no objects large enough to produce a 10-kiloton atmospheric explosion are on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026. Recent close approaches, including car- and house-sized asteroids such as 2026 FM3 and 2026 JH2, passed safely at distances well beyond the Moon, with real-time orbital refinements ruling out any threat. An uptick in smaller fireball detections this year reflects improved ground-based sensors rather than elevated risk from major bolides. With over 96 percent of kilometer-scale near-Earth objects already cataloged and no new high-probability candidates emerging, traders see the current market-implied odds as consistent with established planetary-defense data and historical impact frequencies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
$153,447 Vol.
$153,447 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$153,447 Vol.
$153,447 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies continues to track thousands of asteroids with its Sentry impact-monitoring system, confirming no objects large enough to produce a 10-kiloton atmospheric explosion are on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026. Recent close approaches, including car- and house-sized asteroids such as 2026 FM3 and 2026 JH2, passed safely at distances well beyond the Moon, with real-time orbital refinements ruling out any threat. An uptick in smaller fireball detections this year reflects improved ground-based sensors rather than elevated risk from major bolides. With over 96 percent of kilometer-scale near-Earth objects already cataloged and no new high-probability candidates emerging, traders see the current market-implied odds as consistent with established planetary-defense data and historical impact frequencies.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$153,447End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies continues to track thousands of asteroids with its Sentry impact-monitoring system, confirming no objects large enough to produce a 10-kiloton atmospheric explosion are on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026. Recent close approaches, including car- and house-sized asteroids such as 2026 FM3 and 2026 JH2, passed safely at distances well beyond the Moon, with real-time orbital refinements ruling out any threat. An uptick in smaller fireball detections this year reflects improved ground-based sensors rather than elevated risk from major bolides. With over 96 percent of kilometer-scale near-Earth objects already cataloged and no new high-probability candidates emerging, traders see the current market-implied odds as consistent with established planetary-defense data and historical impact frequencies.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$153,447End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies continues to track thousands of asteroids with its Sentry impact-monitoring system, confirming no objects large enough to produce a 10-kiloton atmospheric explosion are on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026. Recent close approaches, including car- and house-sized asteroids such as 2026 FM3 and 2026 JH2, passed safely at distances well beyond the Moon, with real-time orbital refinements ruling out any threat. An uptick in smaller fireball detections this year reflects improved ground-based sensors rather than elevated risk from major bolides. With over 96 percent of kilometer-scale near-Earth objects already cataloged and no new high-probability candidates emerging, traders see the current market-implied odds as consistent with established planetary-defense data and historical impact frequencies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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