Nawaf Salam has held Lebanon’s premiership since February 2025 under President Joseph Aoun, backed by an initial 84-vote parliamentary majority that drew cross-faction support beyond traditional Hezbollah allies. His cabinet has advanced state-control measures over weapons via the “Homeland Shield” plan, banned IRGC activities, approved a zero-deficit 2026 budget, and pursued U.S.-mediated talks for Israeli withdrawal and reconstruction in the south. Despite Hezbollah criticism and periodic protests, no parliamentary no-confidence vote or sustained coalition fracture has emerged by September 2026. With legislative elections set for May 2026, traders see continuity through the year as the most probable path, given Salam’s diplomatic role and the absence of viable alternatives commanding broader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?
Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?
36% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
36% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nawaf Salam ceases to be Prime Minister of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Salam's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nawaf Salam and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nawaf Salam has held Lebanon’s premiership since February 2025 under President Joseph Aoun, backed by an initial 84-vote parliamentary majority that drew cross-faction support beyond traditional Hezbollah allies. His cabinet has advanced state-control measures over weapons via the “Homeland Shield” plan, banned IRGC activities, approved a zero-deficit 2026 budget, and pursued U.S.-mediated talks for Israeli withdrawal and reconstruction in the south. Despite Hezbollah criticism and periodic protests, no parliamentary no-confidence vote or sustained coalition fracture has emerged by September 2026. With legislative elections set for May 2026, traders see continuity through the year as the most probable path, given Salam’s diplomatic role and the absence of viable alternatives commanding broader consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nawaf Salam ceases to be Prime Minister of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Salam's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nawaf Salam and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Salam's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nawaf Salam and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 20, 2026, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$1,161End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nawaf Salam ceases to be Prime Minister of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Salam's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nawaf Salam and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nawaf Salam has held Lebanon’s premiership since February 2025 under President Joseph Aoun, backed by an initial 84-vote parliamentary majority that drew cross-faction support beyond traditional Hezbollah allies. His cabinet has advanced state-control measures over weapons via the “Homeland Shield” plan, banned IRGC activities, approved a zero-deficit 2026 budget, and pursued U.S.-mediated talks for Israeli withdrawal and reconstruction in the south. Despite Hezbollah criticism and periodic protests, no parliamentary no-confidence vote or sustained coalition fracture has emerged by September 2026. With legislative elections set for May 2026, traders see continuity through the year as the most probable path, given Salam’s diplomatic role and the absence of viable alternatives commanding broader consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nawaf Salam ceases to be Prime Minister of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Salam's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nawaf Salam and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Salam's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nawaf Salam and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,161End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nawaf Salam has held Lebanon’s premiership since February 2025 under President Joseph Aoun, backed by an initial 84-vote parliamentary majority that drew cross-faction support beyond traditional Hezbollah allies. His cabinet has advanced state-control measures over weapons via the “Homeland Shield” plan, banned IRGC activities, approved a zero-deficit 2026 budget, and pursued U.S.-mediated talks for Israeli withdrawal and reconstruction in the south. Despite Hezbollah criticism and periodic protests, no parliamentary no-confidence vote or sustained coalition fracture has emerged by September 2026. With legislative elections set for May 2026, traders see continuity through the year as the most probable path, given Salam’s diplomatic role and the absence of viable alternatives commanding broader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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