Lebanon's political landscape keeps Nawaf Salam's tenure as prime minister in tight balance through 2026, with trader consensus placing a slim 51% probability he completes the year. His recent diplomatic initiatives, including border security talks with Syria's interim president and U.S.-mediated ceasefire discussions with Israel, have bolstered institutional support from President Joseph Aoun and reinforced his focus on state authority over armed factions. Counterbalancing pressures include Hezbollah's opposition to normalization efforts, ongoing protests over security lapses and postponed international trips, and the fragile enforcement of the Blue Line truce amid unresolved economic reforms and sectarian power-sharing disputes. A parliamentary no-confidence vote or major ceasefire breakdown could accelerate his exit, while sustained progress on arms monopoly and prisoner releases might strengthen continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?
Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nawaf Salam ceases to be Prime Minister of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Salam's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nawaf Salam and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lebanon's political landscape keeps Nawaf Salam's tenure as prime minister in tight balance through 2026, with trader consensus placing a slim 51% probability he completes the year. His recent diplomatic initiatives, including border security talks with Syria's interim president and U.S.-mediated ceasefire discussions with Israel, have bolstered institutional support from President Joseph Aoun and reinforced his focus on state authority over armed factions. Counterbalancing pressures include Hezbollah's opposition to normalization efforts, ongoing protests over security lapses and postponed international trips, and the fragile enforcement of the Blue Line truce amid unresolved economic reforms and sectarian power-sharing disputes. A parliamentary no-confidence vote or major ceasefire breakdown could accelerate his exit, while sustained progress on arms monopoly and prisoner releases might strengthen continuity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nawaf Salam ceases to be Prime Minister of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Salam's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nawaf Salam and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Salam's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nawaf Salam and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 20, 2026, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$119End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nawaf Salam ceases to be Prime Minister of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Salam's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nawaf Salam and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lebanon's political landscape keeps Nawaf Salam's tenure as prime minister in tight balance through 2026, with trader consensus placing a slim 51% probability he completes the year. His recent diplomatic initiatives, including border security talks with Syria's interim president and U.S.-mediated ceasefire discussions with Israel, have bolstered institutional support from President Joseph Aoun and reinforced his focus on state authority over armed factions. Counterbalancing pressures include Hezbollah's opposition to normalization efforts, ongoing protests over security lapses and postponed international trips, and the fragile enforcement of the Blue Line truce amid unresolved economic reforms and sectarian power-sharing disputes. A parliamentary no-confidence vote or major ceasefire breakdown could accelerate his exit, while sustained progress on arms monopoly and prisoner releases might strengthen continuity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nawaf Salam ceases to be Prime Minister of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Salam's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nawaf Salam and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Salam's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nawaf Salam and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$119End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Lebanon's political landscape keeps Nawaf Salam's tenure as prime minister in tight balance through 2026, with trader consensus placing a slim 51% probability he completes the year. His recent diplomatic initiatives, including border security talks with Syria's interim president and U.S.-mediated ceasefire discussions with Israel, have bolstered institutional support from President Joseph Aoun and reinforced his focus on state authority over armed factions. Counterbalancing pressures include Hezbollah's opposition to normalization efforts, ongoing protests over security lapses and postponed international trips, and the fragile enforcement of the Blue Line truce amid unresolved economic reforms and sectarian power-sharing disputes. A parliamentary no-confidence vote or major ceasefire breakdown could accelerate his exit, while sustained progress on arms monopoly and prisoner releases might strengthen continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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