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Politics·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Politics·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Starmer - UK PM 47%

Petro - Colombia President 32%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 8.2%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 2.1%

Polymarket

$367,259 Vol.

Starmer - UK PM 47%

Petro - Colombia President 32%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 8.2%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 2.1%

Polymarket

$367,259 Vol.

Starmer - UK PM

$21,885 Vol.

47%

Petro - Colombia President

$20,330 Vol.

32%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$12,135 Vol.

8%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$21,799 Vol.

2%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$13,621 Vol.

1%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$16,154 Vol.

1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$17,125 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$16,116 Vol.

1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$10,679 Vol.

1%

None before 2027

$19,128 Vol.

<1%

Trump - USA President

$10,495 Vol.

<1%

Putin - Russia President

$19,743 Vol.

<1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$13,158 Vol.

<1%

Macron - France President

$12,204 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$15,266 Vol.

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$11,850 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$15,675 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$14,418 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$18,264 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$12,504 Vol.

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$12,235 Vol.

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$13,930 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$11,335 Vol.

<1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$17,281 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Keir Starmer faces the highest implied probability of departing office before 2027 after Labour suffered its worst local election losses in decades on May 7, 2026, prompting more than 70 MPs to demand his resignation and several ministerial aides to quit. This internal revolt has created weeks of uncertainty within the governing party ahead of the 2029 general election. Gustavo Petro ranks second because Colombia’s constitution bars him from seeking re-election, with his term set to conclude in August 2026. Lower-priced outcomes such as Miguel Díaz-Canel reflect limited near-term institutional pressures, while most other listed leaders encounter few immediate triggers under current political timelines and electoral rules. Trader consensus prices these probabilities based on recent parliamentary dynamics, term limits, and scheduled transitions.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$367,259
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Keir Starmer faces the highest implied probability of departing office before 2027 after Labour suffered its worst local election losses in decades on May 7, 2026, prompting more than 70 MPs to demand his resignation and several ministerial aides to quit. This internal revolt has created weeks of uncertainty within the governing party ahead of the 2029 general election. Gustavo Petro ranks second because Colombia’s constitution bars him from seeking re-election, with his term set to conclude in August 2026. Lower-priced outcomes such as Miguel Díaz-Canel reflect limited near-term institutional pressures, while most other listed leaders encounter few immediate triggers under current political timelines and electoral rules. Trader consensus prices these probabilities based on recent parliamentary dynamics, term limits, and scheduled transitions.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$367,259
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 24 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Starmer - UK PM" at 47%, followed by "Petro - Colombia President" at 32%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" has generated $367.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)," browse the 24 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" is "Starmer - UK PM" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Petro - Colombia President" at 32%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.