The Democratic Party holds a commanding 95.5% implied probability in the NY-16 House election market due to the district’s D+18 partisan voter index, its concentration of Democratic voters across southern Westchester County and parts of the Bronx, and incumbent George Latimer’s automatic advancement through an uncontested June 2026 primary. Race raters classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with Latimer’s 71.5% margin in 2024 and the absence of meaningful Republican primary activity or recent polling shifts. Joseph Cinquemani’s nomination faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic turnout and fundraising have historically dominated. Late developments that could narrow the gap include major scandals, incumbent health events, or an unusually strong national Republican wave capable of overcoming the district’s underlying partisan math.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-16 House Election Winner
NY-16 House Election Winner
$41,135 Vol.
$41,135 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
2%
$41,135 Vol.
$41,135 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$30,678 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$10,457 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds a commanding 95.5% implied probability in the NY-16 House election market due to the district’s D+18 partisan voter index, its concentration of Democratic voters across southern Westchester County and parts of the Bronx, and incumbent George Latimer’s automatic advancement through an uncontested June 2026 primary. Race raters classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with Latimer’s 71.5% margin in 2024 and the absence of meaningful Republican primary activity or recent polling shifts. Joseph Cinquemani’s nomination faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic turnout and fundraising have historically dominated. Late developments that could narrow the gap include major scandals, incumbent health events, or an unusually strong national Republican wave capable of overcoming the district’s underlying partisan math.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$41,135End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds a commanding 95.5% implied probability in the NY-16 House election market due to the district’s D+18 partisan voter index, its concentration of Democratic voters across southern Westchester County and parts of the Bronx, and incumbent George Latimer’s automatic advancement through an uncontested June 2026 primary. Race raters classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with Latimer’s 71.5% margin in 2024 and the absence of meaningful Republican primary activity or recent polling shifts. Joseph Cinquemani’s nomination faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic turnout and fundraising have historically dominated. Late developments that could narrow the gap include major scandals, incumbent health events, or an unusually strong national Republican wave capable of overcoming the district’s underlying partisan math.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$41,135End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic Party holds a commanding 95.5% implied probability in the NY-16 House election market due to the district’s D+18 partisan voter index, its concentration of Democratic voters across southern Westchester County and parts of the Bronx, and incumbent George Latimer’s automatic advancement through an uncontested June 2026 primary. Race raters classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with Latimer’s 71.5% margin in 2024 and the absence of meaningful Republican primary activity or recent polling shifts. Joseph Cinquemani’s nomination faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic turnout and fundraising have historically dominated. Late developments that could narrow the gap include major scandals, incumbent health events, or an unusually strong national Republican wave capable of overcoming the district’s underlying partisan math.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions