The Parti Québécois maintains a commanding lead in seat projections and polling aggregates heading into the October 5 vote, reflecting sustained support among francophone voters and gains in suburban ridings that translate efficiently under the first-past-the-post system. Recent surveys show the PQ holding a consistent multi-point advantage over the CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ, with seat models placing it well ahead for a plurality and often a narrow majority. Trader consensus pricing aligns with this positioning, as the CAQ's support has eroded among key demographics like seniors while opposition parties remain fragmented. A late campaign surge by the CAQ or PCQ in targeted regions, unusually high turnout among non-francophone voters, or shifts in undecideds could still narrow the gap, though current evidence indicates limited volatility in the final stretch.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedQuebec General Election Winner
Quebec General Election Winner
PQ 92%
CAQ 8%
PLQ 2.3%
PCQ <1%
$1,006,604 Vol.
$1,006,604 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
PQ
92%
CAQ
8%
PLQ
2%
PCQ
<1%
QS
<1%
PVQ
<1%
PQ 92%
CAQ 8%
PLQ 2.3%
PCQ <1%
$1,006,604 Vol.
$1,006,604 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
PQ
$169,731 Vol.
92%
CAQ
$154,721 Vol.
8%
PLQ
$157,572 Vol.
2%
PCQ
$260,534 Vol.
<1%
QS
$106,523 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$157,522 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).The Parti Québécois maintains a commanding lead in seat projections and polling aggregates heading into the October 5 vote, reflecting sustained support among francophone voters and gains in suburban ridings that translate efficiently under the first-past-the-post system. Recent surveys show the PQ holding a consistent multi-point advantage over the CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ, with seat models placing it well ahead for a plurality and often a narrow majority. Trader consensus pricing aligns with this positioning, as the CAQ's support has eroded among key demographics like seniors while opposition parties remain fragmented. A late campaign surge by the CAQ or PCQ in targeted regions, unusually high turnout among non-francophone voters, or shifts in undecideds could still narrow the gap, though current evidence indicates limited volatility in the final stretch.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,006,604End Date
Feb 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).The Parti Québécois maintains a commanding lead in seat projections and polling aggregates heading into the October 5 vote, reflecting sustained support among francophone voters and gains in suburban ridings that translate efficiently under the first-past-the-post system. Recent surveys show the PQ holding a consistent multi-point advantage over the CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ, with seat models placing it well ahead for a plurality and often a narrow majority. Trader consensus pricing aligns with this positioning, as the CAQ's support has eroded among key demographics like seniors while opposition parties remain fragmented. A late campaign surge by the CAQ or PCQ in targeted regions, unusually high turnout among non-francophone voters, or shifts in undecideds could still narrow the gap, though current evidence indicates limited volatility in the final stretch.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$1,006,604End Date
Feb 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Parti Québécois maintains a commanding lead in seat projections and polling aggregates heading into the October 5 vote, reflecting sustained support among francophone voters and gains in suburban ridings that translate efficiently under the first-past-the-post system. Recent surveys show the PQ holding a consistent multi-point advantage over the CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ, with seat models placing it well ahead for a plurality and often a narrow majority. Trader consensus pricing aligns with this positioning, as the CAQ's support has eroded among key demographics like seniors while opposition parties remain fragmented. A late campaign surge by the CAQ or PCQ in targeted regions, unusually high turnout among non-francophone voters, or shifts in undecideds could still narrow the gap, though current evidence indicates limited volatility in the final stretch.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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