Recent polling from Datafolha and Quaest shows Benedita da Silva holding the lead in Senate vote intentions for Rio de Janeiro, though the field remains highly fragmented with double-digit undecided shares and several candidates clustered within the margin of error. Carlos Jordy, Carlos Portinho, Marcelo Crivella, and Pedro Paulo follow in the surveys, reflecting vote splitting across parties ahead of the October election for the two seats. The campaign period, which opened in mid-August, has featured limited major shifts, with scheduled debates offering potential catalysts for movement. Trader consensus prices Benedita highest for first place while assigning lower implied probabilities to the rest, consistent with the competitive dynamics and structural barriers any single contender faces in securing a clear plurality.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBenedita da Silva 57%
Carlos Jordy 33%
Marcelo Crivella 4.9%
Carlos Portinho 3.5%
$49,901 Vol.
$49,901 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Benedita da Silva
57%
Carlos Jordy
33%
Marcelo Crivella
5%
Carlos Portinho
4%
Pedro Paulo
3%
André Monteiro
<1%
Helio Secco
<1%
Luciano Mattos
<1%
Luiz Eugenio
<1%
Marcos Dias
<1%
Michelly Xavier
<1%
Monica Benicio
<1%
Ó Clemente
<1%
Paula Falcão
<1%
Vinicius Benevides
<1%
Waguinho
<1%
Benedita da Silva 57%
Carlos Jordy 33%
Marcelo Crivella 4.9%
Carlos Portinho 3.5%
$49,901 Vol.
$49,901 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Benedita da Silva
$18,384 Vol.
57%
Carlos Jordy
$10,959 Vol.
33%
Marcelo Crivella
$5,913 Vol.
5%
Carlos Portinho
$3,312 Vol.
4%
Pedro Paulo
$2,658 Vol.
3%
André Monteiro
$816 Vol.
<1%
Helio Secco
$490 Vol.
<1%
Luciano Mattos
$375 Vol.
<1%
Luiz Eugenio
$763 Vol.
<1%
Marcos Dias
$887 Vol.
<1%
Michelly Xavier
$671 Vol.
<1%
Monica Benicio
$843 Vol.
<1%
Ó Clemente
$1,630 Vol.
<1%
Paula Falcão
$845 Vol.
<1%
Vinicius Benevides
$649 Vol.
<1%
Waguinho
$707 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Datafolha and Quaest shows Benedita da Silva holding the lead in Senate vote intentions for Rio de Janeiro, though the field remains highly fragmented with double-digit undecided shares and several candidates clustered within the margin of error. Carlos Jordy, Carlos Portinho, Marcelo Crivella, and Pedro Paulo follow in the surveys, reflecting vote splitting across parties ahead of the October election for the two seats. The campaign period, which opened in mid-August, has featured limited major shifts, with scheduled debates offering potential catalysts for movement. Trader consensus prices Benedita highest for first place while assigning lower implied probabilities to the rest, consistent with the competitive dynamics and structural barriers any single contender faces in securing a clear plurality.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:09 AM ET
Volume
$49,901End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Datafolha and Quaest shows Benedita da Silva holding the lead in Senate vote intentions for Rio de Janeiro, though the field remains highly fragmented with double-digit undecided shares and several candidates clustered within the margin of error. Carlos Jordy, Carlos Portinho, Marcelo Crivella, and Pedro Paulo follow in the surveys, reflecting vote splitting across parties ahead of the October election for the two seats. The campaign period, which opened in mid-August, has featured limited major shifts, with scheduled debates offering potential catalysts for movement. Trader consensus prices Benedita highest for first place while assigning lower implied probabilities to the rest, consistent with the competitive dynamics and structural barriers any single contender faces in securing a clear plurality.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$49,901End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from Datafolha and Quaest shows Benedita da Silva holding the lead in Senate vote intentions for Rio de Janeiro, though the field remains highly fragmented with double-digit undecided shares and several candidates clustered within the margin of error. Carlos Jordy, Carlos Portinho, Marcelo Crivella, and Pedro Paulo follow in the surveys, reflecting vote splitting across parties ahead of the October election for the two seats. The campaign period, which opened in mid-August, has featured limited major shifts, with scheduled debates offering potential catalysts for movement. Trader consensus prices Benedita highest for first place while assigning lower implied probabilities to the rest, consistent with the competitive dynamics and structural barriers any single contender faces in securing a clear plurality.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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