Recent polls indicate a fragmented contest for the second Senate seat in Rio de Janeiro, with Marcelo Crivella holding the highest implied probability among contenders amid competition from Carlos Jordy, Carlos Portinho, Pedro Paulo, and others. Benedita da Silva leads overall intentions, positioning her for the top spot and leaving the second vacancy open to right-leaning candidates dividing conservative support. Key factors include ongoing campaign efforts to consolidate bolsonarista voters, recent debates highlighting policy differences, and Crivella's legal clearance to run. With the October 4 first-round vote weeks away and high undecided shares, shifts in turnout or last-minute endorsements could alter the ordering for second place.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMarcelo Crivella 37.6%
Pedro Paulo 22.7%
Carlos Jordy 19%
Benedita da Silva 16%
$56,870 Vol.
$56,870 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marcelo Crivella
41%
Pedro Paulo
23%
Carlos Jordy
19%
Benedita da Silva
16%
Carlos Portinho
11%
Monica Benicio
<1%
Marcos Dias
<1%
Waguinho
<1%
Ó Clemente
<1%
André Monteiro
<1%
Helio Secco
<1%
Luciano Mattos
<1%
Luiz Eugenio
<1%
Michelly Xavier
<1%
Paula Falcão
<1%
Vinicius Benevides
<1%
Marcelo Crivella 37.6%
Pedro Paulo 22.7%
Carlos Jordy 19%
Benedita da Silva 16%
$56,870 Vol.
$56,870 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marcelo Crivella
$8,974 Vol.
41%
Pedro Paulo
$8,193 Vol.
23%
Carlos Jordy
$11,845 Vol.
19%
Benedita da Silva
$10,055 Vol.
16%
Carlos Portinho
$5,816 Vol.
11%
Monica Benicio
$2,152 Vol.
<1%
Marcos Dias
$931 Vol.
<1%
Waguinho
$1,399 Vol.
<1%
Ó Clemente
$1,332 Vol.
<1%
André Monteiro
$2,185 Vol.
<1%
Helio Secco
$1,128 Vol.
<1%
Luciano Mattos
$597 Vol.
<1%
Luiz Eugenio
$608 Vol.
<1%
Michelly Xavier
$601 Vol.
<1%
Paula Falcão
$520 Vol.
<1%
Vinicius Benevides
$533 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls indicate a fragmented contest for the second Senate seat in Rio de Janeiro, with Marcelo Crivella holding the highest implied probability among contenders amid competition from Carlos Jordy, Carlos Portinho, Pedro Paulo, and others. Benedita da Silva leads overall intentions, positioning her for the top spot and leaving the second vacancy open to right-leaning candidates dividing conservative support. Key factors include ongoing campaign efforts to consolidate bolsonarista voters, recent debates highlighting policy differences, and Crivella's legal clearance to run. With the October 4 first-round vote weeks away and high undecided shares, shifts in turnout or last-minute endorsements could alter the ordering for second place.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Volume
$56,870End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls indicate a fragmented contest for the second Senate seat in Rio de Janeiro, with Marcelo Crivella holding the highest implied probability among contenders amid competition from Carlos Jordy, Carlos Portinho, Pedro Paulo, and others. Benedita da Silva leads overall intentions, positioning her for the top spot and leaving the second vacancy open to right-leaning candidates dividing conservative support. Key factors include ongoing campaign efforts to consolidate bolsonarista voters, recent debates highlighting policy differences, and Crivella's legal clearance to run. With the October 4 first-round vote weeks away and high undecided shares, shifts in turnout or last-minute endorsements could alter the ordering for second place.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$56,870End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls indicate a fragmented contest for the second Senate seat in Rio de Janeiro, with Marcelo Crivella holding the highest implied probability among contenders amid competition from Carlos Jordy, Carlos Portinho, Pedro Paulo, and others. Benedita da Silva leads overall intentions, positioning her for the top spot and leaving the second vacancy open to right-leaning candidates dividing conservative support. Key factors include ongoing campaign efforts to consolidate bolsonarista voters, recent debates highlighting policy differences, and Crivella's legal clearance to run. With the October 4 first-round vote weeks away and high undecided shares, shifts in turnout or last-minute endorsements could alter the ordering for second place.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions