Recent polling for Rio de Janeiro's two Senate seats shows Benedita da Silva (PT) leading overall while a fragmented field competes for second place. Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos), Carlos Jordy (PL), Pedro Paulo (PSD), and Carlos Portinho (PL) remain within margins of error in consolidated first-and-second vote scenarios, with high shares of undecided voters and blanks persisting into September. This tight positioning stems from overlapping party bases, limited differentiation on key state issues, and the mechanics of dual-vote balloting that reward broad but shallow support. Trader probabilities mirror these dynamics, pricing several contenders near one another and leaving room for late shifts from endorsements, turnout mobilization, or final debate performances before October voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMarcelo Crivella 39.5%
Carlos Jordy 20%
Pedro Paulo 18.1%
Carlos Portinho 15.1%
$56,820 Vol.
$56,820 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Marcelo Crivella
40%
Carlos Jordy
20%
Pedro Paulo
18%
Carlos Portinho
12%
Benedita da Silva
14%
Monica Benicio
<1%
Marcos Dias
<1%
Waguinho
<1%
Ó Clemente
<1%
André Monteiro
<1%
Helio Secco
<1%
Luciano Mattos
<1%
Luiz Eugenio
<1%
Michelly Xavier
<1%
Paula Falcão
<1%
Vinicius Benevides
<1%
Marcelo Crivella 39.5%
Carlos Jordy 20%
Pedro Paulo 18.1%
Carlos Portinho 15.1%
$56,820 Vol.
$56,820 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Marcelo Crivella
$8,974 Vol.
40%
Carlos Jordy
$11,845 Vol.
20%
Pedro Paulo
$8,143 Vol.
18%
Carlos Portinho
$5,816 Vol.
12%
Benedita da Silva
$10,055 Vol.
14%
Monica Benicio
$2,152 Vol.
<1%
Marcos Dias
$931 Vol.
<1%
Waguinho
$1,399 Vol.
<1%
Ó Clemente
$1,332 Vol.
<1%
André Monteiro
$2,185 Vol.
<1%
Helio Secco
$1,128 Vol.
<1%
Luciano Mattos
$597 Vol.
<1%
Luiz Eugenio
$608 Vol.
<1%
Michelly Xavier
$601 Vol.
<1%
Paula Falcão
$520 Vol.
<1%
Vinicius Benevides
$533 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling for Rio de Janeiro's two Senate seats shows Benedita da Silva (PT) leading overall while a fragmented field competes for second place. Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos), Carlos Jordy (PL), Pedro Paulo (PSD), and Carlos Portinho (PL) remain within margins of error in consolidated first-and-second vote scenarios, with high shares of undecided voters and blanks persisting into September. This tight positioning stems from overlapping party bases, limited differentiation on key state issues, and the mechanics of dual-vote balloting that reward broad but shallow support. Trader probabilities mirror these dynamics, pricing several contenders near one another and leaving room for late shifts from endorsements, turnout mobilization, or final debate performances before October voting.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Volume
$56,820End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling for Rio de Janeiro's two Senate seats shows Benedita da Silva (PT) leading overall while a fragmented field competes for second place. Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos), Carlos Jordy (PL), Pedro Paulo (PSD), and Carlos Portinho (PL) remain within margins of error in consolidated first-and-second vote scenarios, with high shares of undecided voters and blanks persisting into September. This tight positioning stems from overlapping party bases, limited differentiation on key state issues, and the mechanics of dual-vote balloting that reward broad but shallow support. Trader probabilities mirror these dynamics, pricing several contenders near one another and leaving room for late shifts from endorsements, turnout mobilization, or final debate performances before October voting.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$56,820End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Rio de Janeiro's two Senate seats shows Benedita da Silva (PT) leading overall while a fragmented field competes for second place. Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos), Carlos Jordy (PL), Pedro Paulo (PSD), and Carlos Portinho (PL) remain within margins of error in consolidated first-and-second vote scenarios, with high shares of undecided voters and blanks persisting into September. This tight positioning stems from overlapping party bases, limited differentiation on key state issues, and the mechanics of dual-vote balloting that reward broad but shallow support. Trader probabilities mirror these dynamics, pricing several contenders near one another and leaving room for late shifts from endorsements, turnout mobilization, or final debate performances before October voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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