**Ben-Gvir’s explicit rejection of unification with Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party has solidified trader expectations that the two will contest the October 27, 2026 Knesset election on separate lists.** In late August, Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly urged the leaders to merge, citing historical precedents where right-wing fragmentation cost seats and warning that separate runs risked failing Israel’s electoral threshold. Ben-Gvir immediately declared the decision “final and complete,” arguing that internal polling showed a joint slate would suppress turnout among his voters and cost the bloc 3–4 mandates overall. He instead advocated a larger Otzma Yehudit slate, potentially including figures such as Ofer Winter, while Smotrich signaled openness to unity or pursued alternative technical arrangements (including reported talks with Zehut’s Moshe Feiglin). Recent polls reinforce the split’s logic: Otzma Yehudit is projected to clear the threshold comfortably on its own (around 6 seats), whereas Religious Zionism appears marginal alone but gains modestly in combination. These public positions, strategic calculations over voter mobilization and post-election leverage, and the parties’ post-2022 separation have driven the 79% probability on “No.”