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Elections·US Election

South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner

icon for South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner
Elections·US Election

South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner

Lindsey Graham 94%

Mark Lynch 6.2%

Paul Dans <1%

Thomas Murphy <1%

Polymarket

$143,887 Vol.

Lindsey Graham 94%

Mark Lynch 6.2%

Paul Dans <1%

Thomas Murphy <1%

Polymarket

$143,887 Vol.

Lindsey Graham

$55,584 Vol.

94%

Mark Lynch

$14,282 Vol.

6%

Paul Dans

$50,140 Vol.

<1%

Thomas Murphy

$23,880 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina. If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Incumbent U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham holds a commanding position in the South Carolina Republican Senate primary, scheduled for June 9, 2026, reflecting his strong fundraising advantage, high-profile endorsements from President Trump and state leaders, and recent polling that places him well above the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff. These factors have consolidated support among Republican primary voters and limited the impact of challengers including Mark Lynch, Paul Dans, and Thomas Murphy. Trader consensus in the market assigns Graham a 94 percent implied probability of securing the nomination. Potential shifts could arise from unusually low turnout, late-breaking developments, or an unexpected consolidation of opposition votes, though current evidence points to limited pathways for challengers to close the gap before primary day.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina.

If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$143,887
End Date
Jun 9, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 15, 2025, 3:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina. If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina. If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Incumbent U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham holds a commanding position in the South Carolina Republican Senate primary, scheduled for June 9, 2026, reflecting his strong fundraising advantage, high-profile endorsements from President Trump and state leaders, and recent polling that places him well above the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff. These factors have consolidated support among Republican primary voters and limited the impact of challengers including Mark Lynch, Paul Dans, and Thomas Murphy. Trader consensus in the market assigns Graham a 94 percent implied probability of securing the nomination. Potential shifts could arise from unusually low turnout, late-breaking developments, or an unexpected consolidation of opposition votes, though current evidence points to limited pathways for challengers to close the gap before primary day.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina.

If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$143,887
End Date
Jun 9, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 15, 2025, 3:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina. If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lindsey Graham" at 94%, followed by "Mark Lynch" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 94¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $143.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 15, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Lindsey Graham" at 94%, meaning the market assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Mark Lynch" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.