Skip to main content
icon for Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner
Politics·Global Elections

Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner

icon for Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner
Politics·Global Elections

Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner

Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) 91%

Sweden Democrats (SD) 4.3%

Moderate Party (M) 3.6%

Citizens' Coalition (MED) <1%

Polymarket

$1,100,658 Vol.

Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) 91%

Sweden Democrats (SD) 4.3%

Moderate Party (M) 3.6%

Citizens' Coalition (MED) <1%

Polymarket

$1,100,658 Vol.

icon for Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)

Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)

$36,469 Vol.

91%

icon for Sweden Democrats (SD)

Sweden Democrats (SD)

$513,900 Vol.

4%

icon for Moderate Party (M)

Moderate Party (M)

$380,469 Vol.

4%

icon for Citizens' Coalition (MED)

Citizens' Coalition (MED)

$14,084 Vol.

1%

icon for Christian Democrats (KD)

Christian Democrats (KD)

$14,543 Vol.

<1%

icon for Left Party (V)

Left Party (V)

$15,128 Vol.

<1%

icon for Centre Party (C)

Centre Party (C)

$16,666 Vol.

<1%

icon for Liberals (L)

Liberals (L)

$14,829 Vol.

<1%

icon for Green Party (MP)

Green Party (MP)

$94,570 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).The Swedish Social Democratic Party's sustained lead in recent opinion polls, averaging around 33 percent as of early May 2026 and ahead of the Sweden Democrats by roughly 13 points, drives trader consensus on its strong position to win the most Riksdag seats in the September 13 general election. This reflects stable voter support for the largest party under proportional representation, with red-green bloc projections often nearing or exceeding 190 seats compared to the Tidö-aligned parties. Recent polling from Ipsos, Novus, and Demoskop shows little erosion despite government efforts on immigration and security. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include major scandals involving party leaders, unexpected economic downturns, or significant polling misses of historical magnitude, though structural factors like the four percent threshold limit smaller parties' chances.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.

If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$1,100,658
End Date
Sep 13, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 11:45 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).The Swedish Social Democratic Party's sustained lead in recent opinion polls, averaging around 33 percent as of early May 2026 and ahead of the Sweden Democrats by roughly 13 points, drives trader consensus on its strong position to win the most Riksdag seats in the September 13 general election. This reflects stable voter support for the largest party under proportional representation, with red-green bloc projections often nearing or exceeding 190 seats compared to the Tidö-aligned parties. Recent polling from Ipsos, Novus, and Demoskop shows little erosion despite government efforts on immigration and security. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include major scandals involving party leaders, unexpected economic downturns, or significant polling misses of historical magnitude, though structural factors like the four percent threshold limit smaller parties' chances.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.

If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$1,100,658
End Date
Sep 13, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 11:45 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

Related

icon for Will Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?

Will Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?

32%
icon for Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

61%
icon for Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

96%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)" at 91%, followed by "Sweden Democrats (SD)" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 91¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner" has generated $1.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 4, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner" is "Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)" at 91%, meaning the market assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Sweden Democrats (SD)" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.