The Texas Republican Senate primary runoff pits incumbent Sen. John Cornyn against Attorney General Ken Paxton on May 26, after neither cleared 50 percent in the March primary where Cornyn edged Paxton 42 percent to 40.5 percent and Rep. Wesley Hunt took third. Trader consensus favoring Paxton stems from the attorney general's stronger performance among conservative primary voters, his alignment with hard-line positions on immigration and federal spending, and Cornyn's perceived vulnerabilities as a longtime Senate leader. Recent University of Houston polling shows a statistical tie at 48 percent for Paxton and 45 percent for Cornyn, while both campaigns and allied groups have launched heavy television ad buys in the final weeks. The absence of an endorsement from President Trump has kept the contest competitive, though Paxton's momentum among the party's activist base continues to shape market pricing ahead of early voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTexas Republican Party announces primary debate featuring Paxton, Cornyn, and Hunt
Ken Paxton rises to 62%4%
The debate gave Paxton a platform to attack Cornyn, nudging his price back up to 62% while Cornyn slipped to 39%, reflecting voter reactions to the performances.
Cornyn’s campaign spends $30 million on TV ads targeting Paxton and Hunt
John Cornyn rises to 43%4%
Heavy ad spending helped stabilize Cornyn’s price at 43% after earlier volatility, reflecting renewed confidence among establishment voters.
Cornyn's campaign struggles amid shifting GOP primary dynamics
John Cornyn dips to 39%4%
John Cornyn's campaign faced difficulties as GOP voters favored more aggressive, Trump-aligned candidates like Paxton, leading to a decline in his market price and diminishing chances of winning the nomination.
John Cornyn holds rally in Austin amid tight primary race
John Cornyn rises to 42%4%
Cornyn held a rally in Austin to rally supporters and counter Paxton's momentum, but his market support remained below Paxton's, reflecting ongoing challenges in the primary.
John Cornyn’s campaign suffers after scandal over undisclosed offshore accounts emerges
John Cornyn dips to 60%4%
Revelations about Cornyn’s offshore holdings caused his price to dip from 64% to 60% by April 28, reflecting voter wariness.
Ken Paxton’s price climbs to 62% after securing endorsement from a major Texas PAC
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%5%
A prominent Texas political action committee endorsed Paxton, boosting his price from 57% to 62% as the endorsement signaled establishment backing.
Ken Paxton regains momentum in Texas Senate primary runoff race
Ken Paxton surges to 63%18%
Paxton's campaign regained strength in the runoff phase, reflected by a market price increase to 63%, as he consolidated support among Republican voters and leveraged his base effectively.
Ken Paxton holds rally in Tyler, Texas, intensifying primary campaign
Ken Paxton surges to 63%18%
Paxton held a major rally in Tyler, energizing his base and increasing his visibility in the primary race, which contributed to a rise in his market support.
Ken Paxton rebounds after releasing new campaign strategy focusing on border security
Ken Paxton surges to 64%41%
Paxton’s refreshed messaging on border security restored voter confidence, lifting his price from 23% to 64% by April 7.
Paxton’s price rebounds after rally in Tyler
Ken Paxton drops to 70%14%
A high‑energy rally where Paxton framed himself as a victim of establishment persecution lifted his odds, pushing his price back up.
Ken Paxton rebounds to 44% after issuing apology for ad controversy
Ken Paxton surges to 44%30%
Paxton’s public apology and clarification helped recover some support, lifting his price from 14% to 44% as moderate voters returned.
John Cornyn's support surges after aggressive campaign spending
John Cornyn surges to 87%61%
Cornyn's campaign and aligned super PACs heavily outspent rivals, leading to a sharp increase in his primary support, though volatility remained high due to the competitive field.
Ken Paxton’s price crashes after court rules he cannot shut down Latino voting group
Ken Paxton plunges to 23%60%
A federal judge’s decision limiting Paxton’s voter‑registration lawsuit hurt his credibility, dropping his price from 83% to 23% within days.
Market reacts to uncertainty post-Texas primary with sharp price swings
Ken Paxton plunges to 15%70%
Following the primary, market prices for Paxton and Cornyn fluctuated significantly as investors digested the possibility of a runoff and the evolving political dynamics, causing Paxton's price to drop to 15% and then rebound.
Cornyn briefly rebounds to 77% after new ad campaign
John Cornyn surges to 77%58%
A late‑stage television ad attack on Paxton’s legal controversies gave Cornyn a short‑term boost, reflected in a temporary price rise.
John Cornyn’s poll lead collapses after Trump hints at possible endorsement for Paxton
John Cornyn plunges to 16%68%
Speculation that Trump might back Paxton caused Cornyn’s support to tumble, dropping his price from 84% to 16% within two days.
Ken Paxton's campaign ad featuring Trump airs, boosting his primary support
Ken Paxton jumps to 74%14%
Paxton's campaign began airing ads featuring video clips with Donald Trump, leveraging Trump's popularity among GOP voters to increase Paxton's support in the primary race against Cornyn and Hunt.
Ken Paxton’s price crashes to 14% amid backlash to controversial ad
Ken Paxton plunges to 14%60%
A backlash to Paxton’s ad featuring Trump footage caused his price to tumble from 74% to 14% within days, indicating voter aversion to the tone of the messaging.
John Cornyn’s price spikes to 91% after surprise poll shows lead over Paxton
John Cornyn surges to 91%51%
A poll released showing Cornyn briefly ahead of Paxton caused his price to surge from 40% to 91% by March 4, before a rapid reversal as new information about Paxton’s legal standing emerged.
John Cornyn’s poll surge to 91% after major super‑PAC ad buy
John Cornyn surges to 84%56%
A massive influx of super‑PAC advertising for Cornyn pushed his price sharply upward from 28% to 84%, reflecting heightened voter confidence in his incumbency.
John Cornyn tops new poll showing 84% support among Republican primary voters
John Cornyn surges to 78%65%
A poll released on March 4 showed Cornyn surging to 84%, driving his market price up from a low of 13% on Feb 22 to 78% the next day.
Democrats Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico compete in Texas Senate primary debate
Crockett and Talarico debated in the Democratic primary, highlighting their policy differences and campaign styles, which shaped voter perceptions ahead of the March 3 primary and influenced the Democratic side of the Senate race.
Texas Republican Senate primary election held
Ken Paxton plunges to 15%48%
The primary election took place with Ken Paxton and John Cornyn as the main contenders. Paxton's price peaked at 85% before dropping sharply, reflecting initial optimism followed by uncertainty about the final outcome.
Texas Republican Senate primary held; Paxton and Cornyn see volatile market reactions
The March 3 primary led to dramatic market swings as initial results and reporting caused uncertainty. Paxton's price peaked then plunged sharply, reflecting confusion and speculation about the outcome and potential runoff scenarios.
Cornyn’s price plunges 65 points after Paxton’s legal victory
John Cornyn plunges to 19%65%
The court ruling against the anti‑ESG law was interpreted as a boost for Paxton’s agenda, causing a dramatic drop in Cornyn’s odds as the race polarized further.
Jasmine Crockett launches US Senate bid in Texas
Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett announced her candidacy for the U.S. Senate in Texas, raising her profile and setting up a competitive Democratic primary against James Talarico, which indirectly influenced the overall Senate race environment.
Ken Paxton’s campaign releases new ad featuring Trump footage
Ken Paxton surges to 74%19%
The ad aimed to cement Paxton’s alignment with Trump, spurring a brief surge in his price from 55% to 74% as Trump‑aligned voters rallied.
Stephen Colbert reveals CBS pulled James Talarico interview over FCC rules
Late-night host Stephen Colbert disclosed that CBS lawyers pulled an interview with Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico due to concerns about FCC equal-time rules, drawing media attention to Talarico's campaign during early voting and potentially affecting Democratic primary dynamics.
Ken Paxton’s campaign releases new Trump‑endorsed TV spot
Ken Paxton surges to 83%41%
A Trump‑endorsed advertisement aired, pushing Paxton’s price sharply upward from 42% to 83% by February 24, reflecting a surge in Trump‑aligned voter enthusiasm.
Ken Paxton's campaign ad featuring Trump footage airs
Ken Paxton surges to 75%15%
Paxton's campaign began airing ads featuring video clips of him with Donald Trump, aiming to solidify support among Trump loyalists and boost his primary chances, which corresponded with a price increase in the market.
Judge rules Texas anti‑ESG law unconstitutional
Ken Paxton surges to 84%19%
The decision was seen as a win for business‑friendly candidates like Paxton, bolstering his price while further hurting Cornyn’s moderate image.
Divorce scandal involving Ken Paxton becomes public
Ken Paxton plunges to 16%60%
Details of Paxton’s contentious divorce surfaced, causing his market price to plunge from 76% to a low of 16% within days as voters questioned his personal judgment.
Paxton’s ad campaign pushes his primary odds to 76%
Ken Paxton surges to 76%17%
Following the Trump‑focused ad, Paxton’s market price jumped to a peak of 76%, reflecting heightened enthusiasm among MAGA voters.
Paxton's legal challenges and divorce allegations surface during primary campaign
Ken Paxton jumps to 75%11%
Amid the primary campaign, Paxton faced renewed scrutiny over legal and personal issues, including a contentious divorce with allegations of adultery. This caused significant volatility in his market price, including sharp drops and recoveries.
Democrat Taylor Rehmet flips Republican Texas state Senate seat
Democrat Taylor Rehmet won a special election flipping a reliably Republican state Senate district in Texas, signaling Democratic momentum in the state and potentially influencing perceptions of the general election environment for the Senate race.
Ken Paxton issues opinion supporting exclusion of certain schools from Texas voucher program
Ken Paxton jumps to 58%6%
Paxton released a legal opinion supporting the exclusion of schools tied to groups designated as terrorists from the state voucher program, highlighting his active role in conservative policy enforcement. This reinforced his standing with the GOP base, contributing to market price increases.
Paxton releases new campaign ad featuring Trump footage
Ken Paxton surges to 76%17%
The ad aimed to rally Trump‑aligned voters, spurring a sharp rise in Paxton’s price from 59% to 76% by mid‑February.
John Cornyn wins $10 million donation from Texas GOP donors
John Cornyn jumps to 32%6%
A large donation from state GOP donors reinforced Cornyn’s establishment support, lifting his price from 26% to 32% by January 16, 2026.
Texas Comptroller requests Paxton's opinion on excluding schools from voucher program
Texas Comptroller Kelly Hancock sought Attorney General Ken Paxton's legal opinion on excluding certain private schools from the state voucher program based on alleged ties to foreign adversaries, highlighting Paxton's influence in state policy and energizing his conservative base.
Federal judge blocks Ken Paxton’s attempt to shut down Latino voting group
Ken Paxton jumps to 63%5%
The court’s decision limited Paxton’s legal aggression, temporarily easing concerns about voter suppression and nudging his price upward from 58% to 63% as the scandal’s impact softened.
Jasmine Crockett announces US Senate bid in Texas
Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett launched her campaign for the U.S. Senate in Texas, raising the profile of the Democratic primary and setting up a potential general election challenge to the Republican nominee. While not directly affecting the Republican primary market, this shaped the overall race dynamics.
Jasmine Crockett announces Democratic Senate bid in Texas
Democrat Jasmine Crockett launched her campaign for the Texas Senate seat, aiming to capitalize on Paxton's vulnerabilities and energize Democratic voters. While this event primarily affected the Democratic primary, it influenced the overall race dynamics and Republican market perceptions.
Paxton’s campaign raises $30 million in Q4 fundraising
Ken Paxton jumps to 65%6%
A massive fundraising haul reinforced Paxton’s front‑runner status, pushing his price upward as donors signaled confidence.
John Cornyn’s campaign releases attack ad against Paxton
John Cornyn jumps to 51%8%
The ad highlighted Paxton’s legal troubles, contributing to a price dip for Paxton from 62% to 51% and a modest rise for Cornyn from 43% to 51% by December 16.
Cornyn’s poll numbers dip to historic low after internal party criticism
John Cornyn drops to 39%5%
A leaked internal GOP memo criticizing Cornyn’s moderate record caused his price to tumble to a trough, reflecting party‑base discontent.
Texas voters approve constitutional amendment banning non‑citizen voting
Ken Paxton rises to 48%4%
The amendment reinforced Paxton’s narrative on election integrity, giving his market price a modest boost from 44% to 48% in late November.
Rep. Wesley Hunt announces Texas Senate bid
Wesley Hunt announced his candidacy for the Texas Senate Republican primary, adding a Trump-aligned challenger to the race and increasing the likelihood of a runoff. This announcement contributed to Hunt's initial market price rise before it later declined to zero.
Wesley Hunt announces Texas Senate primary challenge to Cornyn and Paxton
Congressman Wesley Hunt entered the Republican primary, positioning himself as a Trump loyalist and appealing to voters seeking an alternative to Cornyn and Paxton. His entry increased the likelihood of a runoff and affected market dynamics by splitting the anti-Cornyn vote.
U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt officially declares Senate run
Wesley Hunt drops to 0%9%
Hunt’s entry solidified the three‑way GOP contest, confirming his zero‑percent market position as other challengers’ support collapsed.
Ken Paxton’s divorce filing becomes public, raising personal scandal concerns
Ken Paxton drops to 39%9%
The revelation of Paxton’s contentious divorce added a personal scandal dimension, causing his price to fall from 48% to 39% as voters questioned his character.
Ken Paxton appears at rally in Tyler, attacks John Cornyn
Ken Paxton jumps to 72%13%
Paxton’s rally framed Cornyn as an establishment figure, causing Paxton’s price to jump from 59% to 72% by February 1, 2026, while Cornyn’s price fell.
John Cornyn raises $30 million in Q3 fundraising
John Cornyn jumps to 34%13%
Cornyn’s fundraising surge signaled strong establishment backing, temporarily boosting his market price from 21% to 34% by September 11.
Wesley Hunt launches TV ad featuring Trump endorsement
Wesley Hunt rises to 8%3%
Hunt released a new television advertisement highlighting his support from former President Trump, raising his visibility and pushing his price up from 5% to 8% by early September.
Federal judge blocks Paxton’s attempt to shut down Latino voting group Jolt Initiative
Ken Paxton drops to 60%12%
The ruling removed a legal weapon from Paxton’s campaign, causing his market price to fall from a recent high of 72% to 60% as voters questioned his tactics.
Wesley Hunt releases new TV ad targeting Cornyn’s record
Wesley Hunt jumps to 5%5%
Hunt’s ad highlighted his Trump endorsement and attacked Cornyn’s establishment ties, pushing Hunt’s price up slightly and contributing to a dip in Cornyn’s price from 44% to 35%.
John Cornyn rallies in Austin amid primary challenge
John Cornyn jumps to 44%10%
Cornyn’s Austin rally was an attempt to solidify his base against Paxton and Hunt, coinciding with a modest price rise from 34% to 44% as his supporters rallied.
Ken Paxton holds high‑energy rally in Tyler, boosting his primary momentum
Ken Paxton jumps to 72%10%
Paxton’s rally marked the start of a more visible campaign, prompting a jump in his market price from 62% to 72% as voters responded to his aggressive messaging against opponents.
Paxton’s campaign releases high‑budget TV ads targeting Cornyn
Ken Paxton jumps to 72%12%
A surge in Paxton’s advertising spend pushed his price to a peak, while Cornyn’s price fell as voters perceived a growing anti‑incumbent wave.
Ken Paxton announces new investigation into non‑citizen voting claims
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%
Paxton filed a lawsuit targeting alleged non‑citizen ballot activity, positioning himself as a defender of election integrity and appealing to Trump‑aligned voters, which helped lift his market price from 50% to 62% by July 26.
Ken Paxton announces investigation into non‑citizen voting claims
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%
Paxton’s office opened a probe into alleged non‑citizen ballots, boosting his visibility and raising his primary odds, pushing his market price from 50% to 62% by the next sample.
Ken Paxton intensifies campaign with rally in Tyler, Texas
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%
Ken Paxton stepped up his campaign efforts with a rally in Tyler, signaling a more aggressive approach against incumbent John Cornyn. This rally helped boost Paxton's market price from 50% to 62%, reflecting increased investor confidence in his chances.
Ken Paxton announces Texas Senate primary bid after legal troubles
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%
Ken Paxton entered the Republican primary for Texas Senate, emerging from legal challenges including a 2023 impeachment trial and securities fraud case. His campaign leveraged his popularity with Trump's base, causing his market price to rise sharply early in the analysis window.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions