Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Tocantins Senate Election: 1st Place
Politics·Brazil

Tocantins Senate Election: 1st Place

icon for Tocantins Senate Election: 1st Place
Politics·Brazil

Tocantins Senate Election: 1st Place

Eduardo Gomes 82%

Alexandre Guimarães 12.3%

Gaguim 1.0%

Paulo Mourão 1.0%

Polymarket

$27,167 Vol.

Eduardo Gomes 82%

Alexandre Guimarães 12.3%

Gaguim 1.0%

Paulo Mourão 1.0%

Polymarket

$27,167 Vol.

icon for Eduardo Gomes

Eduardo Gomes

$15,769 Vol.

82%

icon for Alexandre Guimarães

Alexandre Guimarães

$2,431 Vol.

12%

icon for Gaguim

Gaguim

$1,517 Vol.

1%

icon for Paulo Mourão

Paulo Mourão

$774 Vol.

1%

icon for Eli Borges

Eli Borges

$699 Vol.

<1%

icon for Nilton Santos

Nilton Santos

$819 Vol.

<1%

icon for Osvany Luz

Osvany Luz

$701 Vol.

<1%

icon for Professor Osvaldo

Professor Osvaldo

$769 Vol.

<1%

icon for Apóstolo Flavio Braga

Apóstolo Flavio Braga

$762 Vol.

<1%

icon for Fábio Ribeiro

Fábio Ribeiro

$769 Vol.

<1%

icon for Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro

Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro

$554 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Dimas

Ronaldo Dimas

$791 Vol.

<1%

icon for Vanderlei Luxemburgo

Vanderlei Luxemburgo

$811 Vol.

<1%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Gomes (PL), the incumbent senator seeking re-election, holds a clear lead in recent polling for first place in Tocantins' October 4 Senate contest, where voters select two candidates from a field of 13 registered contenders. Surveys from mid-September, including Real Time Big Data and Veritá, show him ahead at 25% and 43.1% (combined valid votes) respectively, well ahead of Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) and others such as Gaguim (União), Eli Borges (Republicanos), and Vanderlei Luxemburgo (Podemos), who trail in the low-to-mid teens or below. This positioning reflects Gomes' established name recognition and consistent advantage across multiple institutes since June, amid a fragmented race where no other candidate has consolidated strong support for the top spot. Trader consensus prices align with these patterns, assigning high implied probability to Gomes while assigning lower odds to challengers facing structural barriers in a single-round plurality system.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$27,167
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Gomes (PL), the incumbent senator seeking re-election, holds a clear lead in recent polling for first place in Tocantins' October 4 Senate contest, where voters select two candidates from a field of 13 registered contenders. Surveys from mid-September, including Real Time Big Data and Veritá, show him ahead at 25% and 43.1% (combined valid votes) respectively, well ahead of Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) and others such as Gaguim (União), Eli Borges (Republicanos), and Vanderlei Luxemburgo (Podemos), who trail in the low-to-mid teens or below. This positioning reflects Gomes' established name recognition and consistent advantage across multiple institutes since June, amid a fragmented race where no other candidate has consolidated strong support for the top spot. Trader consensus prices align with these patterns, assigning high implied probability to Gomes while assigning lower odds to challengers facing structural barriers in a single-round plurality system.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$27,167
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Related

icon for Will Gaguim win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?

Will Gaguim win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?

44%
icon for Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?

Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?

92%
icon for Will Carol de Toni win the most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?

Will Carol de Toni win the most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?

63%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Tocantins Senate Election: 1st Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Eduardo Gomes" at 82%, followed by "Alexandre Guimarães" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 82¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Tocantins Senate Election: 1st Place" has generated $27.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Tocantins Senate Election: 1st Place," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Tocantins Senate Election: 1st Place" is "Eduardo Gomes" at 82%, meaning the market assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandre Guimarães" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Tocantins Senate Election: 1st Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.