Eduardo Gomes (PL), the incumbent senator seeking re-election, holds a commanding lead in the Tocantins Senate race for first place, reflected in the market's strong consensus. Multiple September 2026 polls, including Real Time Big Data and Veritá surveys, place him at 25% or higher in stimulated voting scenarios, well ahead of rivals such as Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) around 16%, Gaguim (União) near 14%, and Vanderlei Luxemburgo (Podemos) at 12%. This positioning stems from his established name recognition, prior Senate tenure, and consistent polling advantage throughout 2026, while the field remains fragmented with 13 registered candidates and many undecided voters. The October 4 election timeline and single-round majority rules for the two seats further reinforce trader expectations around his frontrunner status amid limited late shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEduardo Gomes 82%
Alexandre Guimarães 14.5%
Gaguim 1.0%
Paulo Mourão <1%
$27,167 Vol.
$27,167 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Eduardo Gomes
82%
Alexandre Guimarães
14%
Gaguim
1%
Paulo Mourão
1%
Eli Borges
<1%
Nilton Santos
<1%
Osvany Luz
<1%
Professor Osvaldo
<1%
Apóstolo Flavio Braga
<1%
Fábio Ribeiro
<1%
Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro
<1%
Ronaldo Dimas
<1%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo
<1%
Eduardo Gomes 82%
Alexandre Guimarães 14.5%
Gaguim 1.0%
Paulo Mourão <1%
$27,167 Vol.
$27,167 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Eduardo Gomes
$15,769 Vol.
82%
Alexandre Guimarães
$2,431 Vol.
14%
Gaguim
$1,517 Vol.
1%
Paulo Mourão
$774 Vol.
1%
Eli Borges
$699 Vol.
<1%
Nilton Santos
$819 Vol.
<1%
Osvany Luz
$701 Vol.
<1%
Professor Osvaldo
$769 Vol.
<1%
Apóstolo Flavio Braga
$762 Vol.
<1%
Fábio Ribeiro
$769 Vol.
<1%
Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro
$554 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Dimas
$791 Vol.
<1%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo
$811 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Gomes (PL), the incumbent senator seeking re-election, holds a commanding lead in the Tocantins Senate race for first place, reflected in the market's strong consensus. Multiple September 2026 polls, including Real Time Big Data and Veritá surveys, place him at 25% or higher in stimulated voting scenarios, well ahead of rivals such as Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) around 16%, Gaguim (União) near 14%, and Vanderlei Luxemburgo (Podemos) at 12%. This positioning stems from his established name recognition, prior Senate tenure, and consistent polling advantage throughout 2026, while the field remains fragmented with 13 registered candidates and many undecided voters. The October 4 election timeline and single-round majority rules for the two seats further reinforce trader expectations around his frontrunner status amid limited late shifts.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Volume
$27,167End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Gomes (PL), the incumbent senator seeking re-election, holds a commanding lead in the Tocantins Senate race for first place, reflected in the market's strong consensus. Multiple September 2026 polls, including Real Time Big Data and Veritá surveys, place him at 25% or higher in stimulated voting scenarios, well ahead of rivals such as Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) around 16%, Gaguim (União) near 14%, and Vanderlei Luxemburgo (Podemos) at 12%. This positioning stems from his established name recognition, prior Senate tenure, and consistent polling advantage throughout 2026, while the field remains fragmented with 13 registered candidates and many undecided voters. The October 4 election timeline and single-round majority rules for the two seats further reinforce trader expectations around his frontrunner status amid limited late shifts.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$27,167End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Eduardo Gomes (PL), the incumbent senator seeking re-election, holds a commanding lead in the Tocantins Senate race for first place, reflected in the market's strong consensus. Multiple September 2026 polls, including Real Time Big Data and Veritá surveys, place him at 25% or higher in stimulated voting scenarios, well ahead of rivals such as Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) around 16%, Gaguim (União) near 14%, and Vanderlei Luxemburgo (Podemos) at 12%. This positioning stems from his established name recognition, prior Senate tenure, and consistent polling advantage throughout 2026, while the field remains fragmented with 13 registered candidates and many undecided voters. The October 4 election timeline and single-round majority rules for the two seats further reinforce trader expectations around his frontrunner status amid limited late shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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