Traders assign a 98.6% probability that President Trump will not rename the Strait of Hormuz to “Strait of Trump” by May 31 because unilateral U.S. executive authority does not extend to changing internationally recognized geographic names under sovereign control of other nations. The waterway lies between Iran and Oman, and any official redesignation would require multilateral diplomatic agreements through bodies such as the International Hydrographic Organization, a process that historically spans years rather than days. No public statements, executive orders, or legislative proposals have advanced this idea, and the narrow remaining timeline precludes even preliminary consultations with affected states. While an unverified announcement or symbolic domestic reference could theoretically surface, established naming conventions and foreign-policy realities continue to anchor the overwhelming market consensus against occurrence.