**Recent statements from senior Turkish officials indicate that work on a new constitution or major amendments is unlikely to reach the stage of a referendum announcement before the end of 2026.** Presidential Chief Adviser Mehmet Uçum stated in late August 2026 that completing a new charter during the current 28th legislative period appears difficult, with the process more likely to conclude in the subsequent 29th period after the 2028 elections. He stressed that any measure passing with 400 or more parliamentary votes should still proceed to a popular referendum for legitimacy. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş had earlier expressed optimism in June 2026 about achieving a new constitution in 2026–2027, and AKP working groups continue internal drafting and consultations. However, these efforts have not produced a finalized draft or the parliamentary threshold (at least 360 votes to trigger a referendum under Article 175) needed for an imminent announcement. The August 2026 passage of the PKK-related “Law on Strengthening National Solidarity and Social Cohesion” (supported by 467 lawmakers) demonstrated cross-party cooperation that could aid future constitutional moves, but it has not accelerated a referendum timeline. Traders’ strong “No” consensus (82.5%) therefore reflects the absence of any scheduled referendum call this year, combined with explicit signals that the process will extend beyond 2026 amid competing priorities and the need to build broader legislative support. Late-year developments, such as sudden parliamentary consensus or a formal announcement, remain possible but appear improbable given current positioning.