President Erdogan's ruling coalition lacks the 360 parliamentary seats needed to trigger a constitutional referendum in Turkey, holding only around 321 amid recent opposition withdrawals from drafting committees. While a presidential panel has drafted proposals to replace the 1982 charter and Erdogan has publicly urged popular approval of expanded executive powers, these steps remain preparatory without the legislative threshold or coalition expansion. Traders view the timeline as constrained by upcoming electoral cycles and procedural hurdles, assigning the 66.5% probability to no announcement by year-end as the dominant assessment of current institutional barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Erdogan's ruling coalition lacks the 360 parliamentary seats needed to trigger a constitutional referendum in Turkey, holding only around 321 amid recent opposition withdrawals from drafting committees. While a presidential panel has drafted proposals to replace the 1982 charter and Erdogan has publicly urged popular approval of expanded executive powers, these steps remain preparatory without the legislative threshold or coalition expansion. Traders view the timeline as constrained by upcoming electoral cycles and procedural hurdles, assigning the 66.5% probability to no announcement by year-end as the dominant assessment of current institutional barriers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
Volume
$530End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Erdogan's ruling coalition lacks the 360 parliamentary seats needed to trigger a constitutional referendum in Turkey, holding only around 321 amid recent opposition withdrawals from drafting committees. While a presidential panel has drafted proposals to replace the 1982 charter and Erdogan has publicly urged popular approval of expanded executive powers, these steps remain preparatory without the legislative threshold or coalition expansion. Traders view the timeline as constrained by upcoming electoral cycles and procedural hurdles, assigning the 66.5% probability to no announcement by year-end as the dominant assessment of current institutional barriers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$530End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Erdogan's ruling coalition lacks the 360 parliamentary seats needed to trigger a constitutional referendum in Turkey, holding only around 321 amid recent opposition withdrawals from drafting committees. While a presidential panel has drafted proposals to replace the 1982 charter and Erdogan has publicly urged popular approval of expanded executive powers, these steps remain preparatory without the legislative threshold or coalition expansion. Traders view the timeline as constrained by upcoming electoral cycles and procedural hurdles, assigning the 66.5% probability to no announcement by year-end as the dominant assessment of current institutional barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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