**US special forces raided Venezuela on January 3, 2026, launching airstrikes to neutralize air defenses before assaulting Nicolás Maduro's Caracas compound and capturing the president alongside his wife in an operation targeting alleged narco-terrorism.** This marked the initial ground entry, after which the Trump administration shifted to supporting an interim government, securing oil exports—30-50 million barrels pledged—and pursuing transition without additional deployments, as Defense Secretary statements in early January indicated no plans for sustained troops. No further US military entries have occurred in the past four months amid regional diplomatic concerns and global ripple effects. With no escalatory signals, reprisals, or humanitarian surges in the last 30 days, trader consensus reflects stability, though upcoming Venezuelan elections, coalition negotiations, and Maduro's US prosecution could prompt shifts if instability resurges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1,298,246 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
June 30
6%
$1,298,246 Vol.
June 30
$213,483 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**US special forces raided Venezuela on January 3, 2026, launching airstrikes to neutralize air defenses before assaulting Nicolás Maduro's Caracas compound and capturing the president alongside his wife in an operation targeting alleged narco-terrorism.** This marked the initial ground entry, after which the Trump administration shifted to supporting an interim government, securing oil exports—30-50 million barrels pledged—and pursuing transition without additional deployments, as Defense Secretary statements in early January indicated no plans for sustained troops. No further US military entries have occurred in the past four months amid regional diplomatic concerns and global ripple effects. With no escalatory signals, reprisals, or humanitarian surges in the last 30 days, trader consensus reflects stability, though upcoming Venezuelan elections, coalition negotiations, and Maduro's US prosecution could prompt shifts if instability resurges.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 2:05 PM ET
Volume
$1,298,246End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**US special forces raided Venezuela on January 3, 2026, launching airstrikes to neutralize air defenses before assaulting Nicolás Maduro's Caracas compound and capturing the president alongside his wife in an operation targeting alleged narco-terrorism.** This marked the initial ground entry, after which the Trump administration shifted to supporting an interim government, securing oil exports—30-50 million barrels pledged—and pursuing transition without additional deployments, as Defense Secretary statements in early January indicated no plans for sustained troops. No further US military entries have occurred in the past four months amid regional diplomatic concerns and global ripple effects. With no escalatory signals, reprisals, or humanitarian surges in the last 30 days, trader consensus reflects stability, though upcoming Venezuelan elections, coalition negotiations, and Maduro's US prosecution could prompt shifts if instability resurges.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,298,246End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US special forces raided Venezuela on January 3, 2026, launching airstrikes to neutralize air defenses before assaulting Nicolás Maduro's Caracas compound and capturing the president alongside his wife in an operation targeting alleged narco-terrorism.** This marked the initial ground entry, after which the Trump administration shifted to supporting an interim government, securing oil exports—30-50 million barrels pledged—and pursuing transition without additional deployments, as Defense Secretary statements in early January indicated no plans for sustained troops. No further US military entries have occurred in the past four months amid regional diplomatic concerns and global ripple effects. With no escalatory signals, reprisals, or humanitarian surges in the last 30 days, trader consensus reflects stability, though upcoming Venezuelan elections, coalition negotiations, and Maduro's US prosecution could prompt shifts if instability resurges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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