US-Colombia counter-narcotics cooperation under President Abelardo de la Espriella and the Trump administration centers on joint exercises, intelligence sharing, MQ-9 Reaper drone support, and maritime interdiction against groups such as the ELN and Gulf Clan, without confirmed US aerial strikes on Colombian soil. Recent drone attacks by armed groups on Colombian bases near the Venezuelan border have prompted heightened US-Colombian military coordination, including a November 2026 meeting between the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs and Colombian defense leaders, yet these developments have not produced a qualifying US-initiated land impact. Trader consensus prices a US drone, missile, or air strike by December 31 at roughly 16-23 percent, reflecting structural preferences for vessel strikes and bilateral operations over unilateral territorial action, alongside Colombia’s sovereignty protocols and the absence of any reported qualifying event through mid-November. Ongoing training and policy timelines through year-end remain the primary variables that could shift probabilities before resolution.