Anthropic holds a strong 76% implied probability on the LiveBench overall leaderboard through end of October due to its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 series consistently posting the highest verified scores across recent snapshots, driven by superior results in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. OpenAI trails at 18% despite competitive GPT-6 Astra and o3-mini variants, reflecting a narrower gap in some dynamic leaderboards but repeated shortfalls against Anthropic's latest releases. Other labs including Google, Meta, and DeepSeek remain below 1% as their models lag in independent benchmark aggregates. Traders are weighting Anthropic's recent model updates and sustained frontier positioning ahead of the October resolution, though new releases or scoring changes could still shift outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 76%
OpenAI 20%
Google <1%
Meta <1%
$22,953 Vol.
$22,953 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
76%
OpenAI
20%
1%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 76%
OpenAI 20%
Google <1%
Meta <1%
$22,953 Vol.
$22,953 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$9,597 Vol.
76%
OpenAI
$3,716 Vol.
20%
$613 Vol.
1%
Meta
$760 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$525 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$555 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$515 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$476 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$463 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$512 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$523 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$479 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$513 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$454 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$446 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$482 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$441 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$417 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$529 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$479 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$457 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds a strong 76% implied probability on the LiveBench overall leaderboard through end of October due to its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 series consistently posting the highest verified scores across recent snapshots, driven by superior results in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. OpenAI trails at 18% despite competitive GPT-6 Astra and o3-mini variants, reflecting a narrower gap in some dynamic leaderboards but repeated shortfalls against Anthropic's latest releases. Other labs including Google, Meta, and DeepSeek remain below 1% as their models lag in independent benchmark aggregates. Traders are weighting Anthropic's recent model updates and sustained frontier positioning ahead of the October resolution, though new releases or scoring changes could still shift outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volume
$22,953End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds a strong 76% implied probability on the LiveBench overall leaderboard through end of October due to its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 series consistently posting the highest verified scores across recent snapshots, driven by superior results in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. OpenAI trails at 18% despite competitive GPT-6 Astra and o3-mini variants, reflecting a narrower gap in some dynamic leaderboards but repeated shortfalls against Anthropic's latest releases. Other labs including Google, Meta, and DeepSeek remain below 1% as their models lag in independent benchmark aggregates. Traders are weighting Anthropic's recent model updates and sustained frontier positioning ahead of the October resolution, though new releases or scoring changes could still shift outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$22,953End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds a strong 76% implied probability on the LiveBench overall leaderboard through end of October due to its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 series consistently posting the highest verified scores across recent snapshots, driven by superior results in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. OpenAI trails at 18% despite competitive GPT-6 Astra and o3-mini variants, reflecting a narrower gap in some dynamic leaderboards but repeated shortfalls against Anthropic's latest releases. Other labs including Google, Meta, and DeepSeek remain below 1% as their models lag in independent benchmark aggregates. Traders are weighting Anthropic's recent model updates and sustained frontier positioning ahead of the October resolution, though new releases or scoring changes could still shift outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions