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Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?

icon for Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?

Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?

$336,093 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$336,093 Vol.

Polymarket
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North Korea

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Cuba

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Lebanon

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Kuwait

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Qatar

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This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Diplomatic normalization with Israel remains concentrated among nations that joined the Abraham Accords framework or earlier agreements, while 29 UN member states, primarily Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation members, continue to withhold formal recognition as of early 2026. Recent multilateral statements from foreign ministers, including those from Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt, have focused on West Bank developments and calls for Palestinian state pathways, reinforcing the linkage many holdout governments maintain between recognition and progress on that issue. Leadership transitions in Syria have prompted informal signals of possible future ties, yet no new formal recognitions by major holdouts have occurred in the past several months. With the June 30 resolution deadline approaching, scheduled regional summits and any bilateral announcements in the coming weeks represent the primary near-term catalysts that could influence outcomes.

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$336,093
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 2:05 PM ET
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Diplomatic normalization with Israel remains concentrated among nations that joined the Abraham Accords framework or earlier agreements, while 29 UN member states, primarily Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation members, continue to withhold formal recognition as of early 2026. Recent multilateral statements from foreign ministers, including those from Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt, have focused on West Bank developments and calls for Palestinian state pathways, reinforcing the linkage many holdout governments maintain between recognition and progress on that issue. Leadership transitions in Syria have prompted informal signals of possible future ties, yet no new formal recognitions by major holdouts have occurred in the past several months. With the June 30 resolution deadline approaching, scheduled regional summits and any bilateral announcements in the coming weeks represent the primary near-term catalysts that could influence outcomes.

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$336,093
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 2:05 PM ET
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lebanon" at 4%, followed by "Kuwait" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 4¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 4% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?" has generated $336.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 20, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?" is "Lebanon" at just 4%, with "Kuwait" close behind at 4%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.