Recent polling averages place Yashar, Likud, Together, the Democrats, Yisrael Beytenu, Otzma Yehudit, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Religious Zionism–Zehut, Ra’am, and the Joint List above Israel’s 3.25 percent electoral threshold, while Blue and White, Amcha Israel, and the Reservists–Economic Party hover near or below it. The Central Elections Committee’s late-September disqualification of the main Arab lists, subject to Supreme Court review in early October, and the October 16 surplus-vote agreement deadline are the immediate procedural factors that could alter seat allocation. With both the Netanyahu-aligned and opposition blocs projected short of 61 seats, coalition arithmetic after October 27 will hinge on which smaller lists clear the threshold and on turnout patterns in key sectors.