Rafael Grossi holds the strongest position in the race to succeed António Guterres as UN Secretary-General because his six years leading the International Atomic Energy Agency have given him direct visibility on nuclear non-proliferation and geopolitical flashpoints that dominate Security Council attention. Four other Latin American and Caribbean candidates—Maria Fernanda Espinosa, Rebeca Grynspan, and Michelle Bachelet—have also been formally nominated, with Espinosa entering the field only in mid-May after the April interactive dialogues, allowing her to draw on her prior General Assembly presidency and foreign-minister experience. The selection process requires a Security Council recommendation without a permanent-member veto before General Assembly approval, and the field remains open pending further diplomatic consultations and straw polls among member states.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWho will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?
Rafael Grossi 50%
Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés 22.8%
Rebeca Grynspan 16.9%
Michelle Bachelet 12.4%
$60,794 Vol.
$60,794 Vol.
Rafael Grossi
44%
Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés
23%
Rebeca Grynspan
17%
Michelle Bachelet
12%
Jacinda Ardern
3%
Bruno Donat
1%
David Choquehuanca
<1%
Vuk Jeremić
<1%
Mia Mottley
<1%
Colombe Cahen-Salvador
<1%
Alicia Bárcena
<1%
Kristalina Georgieva
<1%
Amina Mohammed
<1%
Achim Steiner
<1%
Rafael Grossi 50%
Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés 22.8%
Rebeca Grynspan 16.9%
Michelle Bachelet 12.4%
$60,794 Vol.
$60,794 Vol.
Rafael Grossi
44%
Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés
23%
Rebeca Grynspan
17%
Michelle Bachelet
12%
Jacinda Ardern
3%
Bruno Donat
1%
David Choquehuanca
<1%
Vuk Jeremić
<1%
Mia Mottley
<1%
Colombe Cahen-Salvador
<1%
Alicia Bárcena
<1%
Kristalina Georgieva
<1%
Amina Mohammed
<1%
Achim Steiner
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed person who is officially chosen to be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations in this selection process.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Secretary-Generals appointed before the next Secretary-General selection will not count.
If no United Nations Secretary-General selection takes place or the results of this selection are not known by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 11, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed person who is officially chosen to be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations in this selection process.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Secretary-Generals appointed before the next Secretary-General selection will not count.
If no United Nations Secretary-General selection takes place or the results of this selection are not known by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Rafael Grossi holds the strongest position in the race to succeed António Guterres as UN Secretary-General because his six years leading the International Atomic Energy Agency have given him direct visibility on nuclear non-proliferation and geopolitical flashpoints that dominate Security Council attention. Four other Latin American and Caribbean candidates—Maria Fernanda Espinosa, Rebeca Grynspan, and Michelle Bachelet—have also been formally nominated, with Espinosa entering the field only in mid-May after the April interactive dialogues, allowing her to draw on her prior General Assembly presidency and foreign-minister experience. The selection process requires a Security Council recommendation without a permanent-member veto before General Assembly approval, and the field remains open pending further diplomatic consultations and straw polls among member states.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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