Tight U.S. cattle inventories at a 75-year low of 86.2 million head as of January 2026, driven by prolonged drought and elevated feed costs, continue to constrain domestic beef production, which USDA projects will fall below 26 billion pounds for the year. This supply squeeze has lifted ground beef retail prices to $6.70 per pound in March 2026, up nearly 16% year-over-year, while wholesale beef values rose 19.7% over the same period. Strong consumer demand, reflected in record all-fresh retail averages near $9.50 per pound early in the year, has supported these gains, with imports forecast to rise 6% to help fill the gap. Market-implied expectations point to 6-10% further beef price inflation through 2026, tempered only by potential herd rebuilding signals or shifts in export volumes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill ground beef hit __ in 2026?
Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?
$18,696 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$7.000+
76%
$8.000+
50%
$9.000+
38%
$10.000+
15%
$18,696 Vol.
$7.000+
$50 Vol.
76%
$8.000+
$1,514 Vol.
50%
$9.000+
$22 Vol.
38%
$10.000+
$17,111 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Tight U.S. cattle inventories at a 75-year low of 86.2 million head as of January 2026, driven by prolonged drought and elevated feed costs, continue to constrain domestic beef production, which USDA projects will fall below 26 billion pounds for the year. This supply squeeze has lifted ground beef retail prices to $6.70 per pound in March 2026, up nearly 16% year-over-year, while wholesale beef values rose 19.7% over the same period. Strong consumer demand, reflected in record all-fresh retail averages near $9.50 per pound early in the year, has supported these gains, with imports forecast to rise 6% to help fill the gap. Market-implied expectations point to 6-10% further beef price inflation through 2026, tempered only by potential herd rebuilding signals or shifts in export volumes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Apr 3, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$18,696End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Tight U.S. cattle inventories at a 75-year low of 86.2 million head as of January 2026, driven by prolonged drought and elevated feed costs, continue to constrain domestic beef production, which USDA projects will fall below 26 billion pounds for the year. This supply squeeze has lifted ground beef retail prices to $6.70 per pound in March 2026, up nearly 16% year-over-year, while wholesale beef values rose 19.7% over the same period. Strong consumer demand, reflected in record all-fresh retail averages near $9.50 per pound early in the year, has supported these gains, with imports forecast to rise 6% to help fill the gap. Market-implied expectations point to 6-10% further beef price inflation through 2026, tempered only by potential herd rebuilding signals or shifts in export volumes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$18,696End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tight U.S. cattle inventories at a 75-year low of 86.2 million head as of January 2026, driven by prolonged drought and elevated feed costs, continue to constrain domestic beef production, which USDA projects will fall below 26 billion pounds for the year. This supply squeeze has lifted ground beef retail prices to $6.70 per pound in March 2026, up nearly 16% year-over-year, while wholesale beef values rose 19.7% over the same period. Strong consumer demand, reflected in record all-fresh retail averages near $9.50 per pound early in the year, has supported these gains, with imports forecast to rise 6% to help fill the gap. Market-implied expectations point to 6-10% further beef price inflation through 2026, tempered only by potential herd rebuilding signals or shifts in export volumes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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