Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 96.8% implied probability of no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, anchored by the National Hurricane Center's initial Tropical Weather Outlook on May 15 showing no disturbances with near-term development potential across the basin. This high confidence stems from climatological rarity—only a handful of pre-June 1 hurricanes since 1851—compounded by current conditions: marginal sea surface temperatures, strong vertical wind shear from an emerging El Niño pattern, and dry mid-level air stifling organization. While rapid genesis remains theoretically possible from an unforeseen tropical wave, daily NHC updates through month's end will monitor any shifts in model guidance or satellite observations.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill a hurricane form by May 31?
Will a hurricane form by May 31?
$49,148 Vol.
$49,148 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$49,148 Vol.
$49,148 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 96.8% implied probability of no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, anchored by the National Hurricane Center's initial Tropical Weather Outlook on May 15 showing no disturbances with near-term development potential across the basin. This high confidence stems from climatological rarity—only a handful of pre-June 1 hurricanes since 1851—compounded by current conditions: marginal sea surface temperatures, strong vertical wind shear from an emerging El Niño pattern, and dry mid-level air stifling organization. While rapid genesis remains theoretically possible from an unforeseen tropical wave, daily NHC updates through month's end will monitor any shifts in model guidance or satellite observations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Volume
$49,148Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 96.8% implied probability of no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, anchored by the National Hurricane Center's initial Tropical Weather Outlook on May 15 showing no disturbances with near-term development potential across the basin. This high confidence stems from climatological rarity—only a handful of pre-June 1 hurricanes since 1851—compounded by current conditions: marginal sea surface temperatures, strong vertical wind shear from an emerging El Niño pattern, and dry mid-level air stifling organization. While rapid genesis remains theoretically possible from an unforeseen tropical wave, daily NHC updates through month's end will monitor any shifts in model guidance or satellite observations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$49,148Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 96.8% implied probability of no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, anchored by the National Hurricane Center's initial Tropical Weather Outlook on May 15 showing no disturbances with near-term development potential across the basin. This high confidence stems from climatological rarity—only a handful of pre-June 1 hurricanes since 1851—compounded by current conditions: marginal sea surface temperatures, strong vertical wind shear from an emerging El Niño pattern, and dry mid-level air stifling organization. While rapid genesis remains theoretically possible from an unforeseen tropical wave, daily NHC updates through month's end will monitor any shifts in model guidance or satellite observations.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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