Ami Bera, the Democratic incumbent, holds a commanding position in California's 3rd congressional district race due to the seat's partisan lean, established voter base, and strong primary performance. Recent redistricting and 2024 results showing Democratic advantages in presidential voting have reinforced the district's tilt, while Bera advanced comfortably through the June 2026 top-two primary against Republican Robb Tucker. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats reflects this structural edge and limited opposition momentum ahead of the November general election. A significant national Republican surge, late-breaking scandal, or unforeseen turnout shift could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability based on current indicators.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$34,270 Vol.
$34,270 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
5%
$34,270 Vol.
$34,270 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$19,591 Vol.
94%
共和党
$14,679 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ami Bera, the Democratic incumbent, holds a commanding position in California's 3rd congressional district race due to the seat's partisan lean, established voter base, and strong primary performance. Recent redistricting and 2024 results showing Democratic advantages in presidential voting have reinforced the district's tilt, while Bera advanced comfortably through the June 2026 top-two primary against Republican Robb Tucker. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats reflects this structural edge and limited opposition momentum ahead of the November general election. A significant national Republican surge, late-breaking scandal, or unforeseen turnout shift could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability based on current indicators.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$34,270終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ami Bera, the Democratic incumbent, holds a commanding position in California's 3rd congressional district race due to the seat's partisan lean, established voter base, and strong primary performance. Recent redistricting and 2024 results showing Democratic advantages in presidential voting have reinforced the district's tilt, while Bera advanced comfortably through the June 2026 top-two primary against Republican Robb Tucker. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats reflects this structural edge and limited opposition momentum ahead of the November general election. A significant national Republican surge, late-breaking scandal, or unforeseen turnout shift could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability based on current indicators.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$34,270終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ami Bera, the Democratic incumbent, holds a commanding position in California's 3rd congressional district race due to the seat's partisan lean, established voter base, and strong primary performance. Recent redistricting and 2024 results showing Democratic advantages in presidential voting have reinforced the district's tilt, while Bera advanced comfortably through the June 2026 top-two primary against Republican Robb Tucker. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats reflects this structural edge and limited opposition momentum ahead of the November general election. A significant national Republican surge, late-breaking scandal, or unforeseen turnout shift could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability based on current indicators.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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