Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 85.5% implied probability to win California's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50—approved by voters in November 2025—that shifted the district to a Safe Democratic lean with 39% Democratic voter registration. Incumbent Rep. Ami Bera (D) dominates ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, boasting $1.9 million cash on hand as of late March, far outpacing underfunded Republican challengers like Christine Bish and Robb Tucker. Recent ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball confirm Solid or Safe Democratic status, with Bera's incumbency advantage and northern Sacramento base solidifying the party's path to victory in November's general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$25,113 Vol.
$25,113 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
86%
共和党
12%
$25,113 Vol.
$25,113 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$13,178 Vol.
86%
共和党
$11,935 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 85.5% implied probability to win California's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50—approved by voters in November 2025—that shifted the district to a Safe Democratic lean with 39% Democratic voter registration. Incumbent Rep. Ami Bera (D) dominates ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, boasting $1.9 million cash on hand as of late March, far outpacing underfunded Republican challengers like Christine Bish and Robb Tucker. Recent ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball confirm Solid or Safe Democratic status, with Bera's incumbency advantage and northern Sacramento base solidifying the party's path to victory in November's general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$25,113終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 85.5% implied probability to win California's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50—approved by voters in November 2025—that shifted the district to a Safe Democratic lean with 39% Democratic voter registration. Incumbent Rep. Ami Bera (D) dominates ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, boasting $1.9 million cash on hand as of late March, far outpacing underfunded Republican challengers like Christine Bish and Robb Tucker. Recent ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball confirm Solid or Safe Democratic status, with Bera's incumbency advantage and northern Sacramento base solidifying the party's path to victory in November's general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$25,113終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 85.5% implied probability to win California's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50—approved by voters in November 2025—that shifted the district to a Safe Democratic lean with 39% Democratic voter registration. Incumbent Rep. Ami Bera (D) dominates ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, boasting $1.9 million cash on hand as of late March, far outpacing underfunded Republican challengers like Christine Bish and Robb Tucker. Recent ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball confirm Solid or Safe Democratic status, with Bera's incumbency advantage and northern Sacramento base solidifying the party's path to victory in November's general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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