California's 3rd congressional district has shifted toward Democrats following 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, creating a favorable partisan composition for the party. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Democratic incumbent Ami Bera advanced with the highest vote share ahead of Republican Robb Tucker, confirming the seat's lean in early general election positioning. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic, aligning with trader consensus on the November 3, 2026, outcome. The implied probability accounts for typical midterm turnout patterns and the absence of competitive Republican challengers in recent cycles. Late developments such as a national partisan swing, unusually high Republican mobilization, or major candidate withdrawal could still alter the result before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$34,270 Vol.
$34,270 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
5%
$34,270 Vol.
$34,270 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$19,591 Vol.
94%
共和党
$14,679 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 3rd congressional district has shifted toward Democrats following 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, creating a favorable partisan composition for the party. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Democratic incumbent Ami Bera advanced with the highest vote share ahead of Republican Robb Tucker, confirming the seat's lean in early general election positioning. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic, aligning with trader consensus on the November 3, 2026, outcome. The implied probability accounts for typical midterm turnout patterns and the absence of competitive Republican challengers in recent cycles. Late developments such as a national partisan swing, unusually high Republican mobilization, or major candidate withdrawal could still alter the result before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$34,270終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 3rd congressional district has shifted toward Democrats following 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, creating a favorable partisan composition for the party. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Democratic incumbent Ami Bera advanced with the highest vote share ahead of Republican Robb Tucker, confirming the seat's lean in early general election positioning. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic, aligning with trader consensus on the November 3, 2026, outcome. The implied probability accounts for typical midterm turnout patterns and the absence of competitive Republican challengers in recent cycles. Late developments such as a national partisan swing, unusually high Republican mobilization, or major candidate withdrawal could still alter the result before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$34,270終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 3rd congressional district has shifted toward Democrats following 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, creating a favorable partisan composition for the party. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Democratic incumbent Ami Bera advanced with the highest vote share ahead of Republican Robb Tucker, confirming the seat's lean in early general election positioning. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic, aligning with trader consensus on the November 3, 2026, outcome. The implied probability accounts for typical midterm turnout patterns and the absence of competitive Republican challengers in recent cycles. Late developments such as a national partisan swing, unusually high Republican mobilization, or major candidate withdrawal could still alter the result before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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