Ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran in early 2026, following the 2025 military conflict and subsequent Iranian protests, have produced measurable progress toward a framework agreement that would impose verifiable limits on uranium enrichment and missile activities in exchange for sanctions relief and frozen asset releases. Recent U.S. proposals, including a one-page memorandum discussed in May 2026, outline a multi-year suspension of enrichment alongside Iranian commitments never to pursue nuclear weapons, with mediators noting substantial convergence on core terms despite remaining disputes over stockpile transfers and facility operations. These diplomatic developments, alongside public statements from U.S. officials indicating flexibility on duration and verification, underpin the 60.5 percent implied probability that traders assign to a qualifying deal materializing before 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$1,332,685 Vol.
$1,332,685 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$1,332,685 Vol.
$1,332,685 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran in early 2026, following the 2025 military conflict and subsequent Iranian protests, have produced measurable progress toward a framework agreement that would impose verifiable limits on uranium enrichment and missile activities in exchange for sanctions relief and frozen asset releases. Recent U.S. proposals, including a one-page memorandum discussed in May 2026, outline a multi-year suspension of enrichment alongside Iranian commitments never to pursue nuclear weapons, with mediators noting substantial convergence on core terms despite remaining disputes over stockpile transfers and facility operations. These diplomatic developments, alongside public statements from U.S. officials indicating flexibility on duration and verification, underpin the 60.5 percent implied probability that traders assign to a qualifying deal materializing before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
音量
$1,332,685終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran in early 2026, following the 2025 military conflict and subsequent Iranian protests, have produced measurable progress toward a framework agreement that would impose verifiable limits on uranium enrichment and missile activities in exchange for sanctions relief and frozen asset releases. Recent U.S. proposals, including a one-page memorandum discussed in May 2026, outline a multi-year suspension of enrichment alongside Iranian commitments never to pursue nuclear weapons, with mediators noting substantial convergence on core terms despite remaining disputes over stockpile transfers and facility operations. These diplomatic developments, alongside public statements from U.S. officials indicating flexibility on duration and verification, underpin the 60.5 percent implied probability that traders assign to a qualifying deal materializing before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
音量
$1,332,686終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran in early 2026, following the 2025 military conflict and subsequent Iranian protests, have produced measurable progress toward a framework agreement that would impose verifiable limits on uranium enrichment and missile activities in exchange for sanctions relief and frozen asset releases. Recent U.S. proposals, including a one-page memorandum discussed in May 2026, outline a multi-year suspension of enrichment alongside Iranian commitments never to pursue nuclear weapons, with mediators noting substantial convergence on core terms despite remaining disputes over stockpile transfers and facility operations. These diplomatic developments, alongside public statements from U.S. officials indicating flexibility on duration and verification, underpin the 60.5 percent implied probability that traders assign to a qualifying deal materializing before 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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