Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors 86°F or higher at 89.5% implied probability for Houston's May 15 high temperature, driven by National Weather Service guidance projecting upper 80s to low 90s under persistent subtropical ridge aloft, which promotes subsidence, clear skies, and ample solar insolation for rapid daytime heating. Light south winds around 5-10 mph will advect warm Gulf moisture, with dewpoints near 70°F supporting highs well above the 87°F climatological normal at Bush Intercontinental Airport. Recent soundings confirm dry mid-levels limiting convection risks, while the past 24 hours' ozone action day alert underscores sunny, stable conditions akin to today's forecast high near 90°F. Model ensembles from GFS and ECMWF remain consistent across recent runs, though isolated afternoon clouds could trim peaks by 1-2°F; watch hourly observations from NWS Houston for final resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Houston on May 15?
Highest temperature in Houston on May 15?
86°F or higher 90%
84-85°F 9%
82-83°F 2.0%
80-81°F <1%
신규
신규
2026.05.15
67°F or below
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
9%
86°F or higher
90%
86°F or higher 90%
84-85°F 9%
82-83°F 2.0%
80-81°F <1%
신규
신규
2026.05.15
67°F or below
$1,186 거래량
<1%
68-69°F
$1,303 거래량
<1%
70-71°F
$1,298 거래량
<1%
72-73°F
$1,106 거래량
<1%
74-75°F
$1,216 거래량
<1%
76-77°F
$234 거래량
<1%
78-79°F
$318 거래량
<1%
80-81°F
$210 거래량
1%
82-83°F
$263 거래량
2%
84-85°F
$1,261 거래량
9%
86°F or higher
$456 거래량
90%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors 86°F or higher at 89.5% implied probability for Houston's May 15 high temperature, driven by National Weather Service guidance projecting upper 80s to low 90s under persistent subtropical ridge aloft, which promotes subsidence, clear skies, and ample solar insolation for rapid daytime heating. Light south winds around 5-10 mph will advect warm Gulf moisture, with dewpoints near 70°F supporting highs well above the 87°F climatological normal at Bush Intercontinental Airport. Recent soundings confirm dry mid-levels limiting convection risks, while the past 24 hours' ozone action day alert underscores sunny, stable conditions akin to today's forecast high near 90°F. Model ensembles from GFS and ECMWF remain consistent across recent runs, though isolated afternoon clouds could trim peaks by 1-2°F; watch hourly observations from NWS Houston for final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 13, 2026, 12:44 AM ET
거래량
$8,850종료일
2026.05.15마켓 개설일
May 13, 2026, 12:44 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors 86°F or higher at 89.5% implied probability for Houston's May 15 high temperature, driven by National Weather Service guidance projecting upper 80s to low 90s under persistent subtropical ridge aloft, which promotes subsidence, clear skies, and ample solar insolation for rapid daytime heating. Light south winds around 5-10 mph will advect warm Gulf moisture, with dewpoints near 70°F supporting highs well above the 87°F climatological normal at Bush Intercontinental Airport. Recent soundings confirm dry mid-levels limiting convection risks, while the past 24 hours' ozone action day alert underscores sunny, stable conditions akin to today's forecast high near 90°F. Model ensembles from GFS and ECMWF remain consistent across recent runs, though isolated afternoon clouds could trim peaks by 1-2°F; watch hourly observations from NWS Houston for final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$8,850종료일
2026.05.15마켓 개설일
May 13, 2026, 12:44 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors 86°F or higher at 89.5% implied probability for Houston's May 15 high temperature, driven by National Weather Service guidance projecting upper 80s to low 90s under persistent subtropical ridge aloft, which promotes subsidence, clear skies, and ample solar insolation for rapid daytime heating. Light south winds around 5-10 mph will advect warm Gulf moisture, with dewpoints near 70°F supporting highs well above the 87°F climatological normal at Bush Intercontinental Airport. Recent soundings confirm dry mid-levels limiting convection risks, while the past 24 hours' ozone action day alert underscores sunny, stable conditions akin to today's forecast high near 90°F. Model ensembles from GFS and ECMWF remain consistent across recent runs, though isolated afternoon clouds could trim peaks by 1-2°F; watch hourly observations from NWS Houston for final resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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