Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in the forecast lowest temperature at Miami International Airport on May 18, with implied probabilities evenly spread at 24-26% across bins from 73°F or below to 88-89°F, driven by divergent NOAA GFS and ECMWF model ensembles showing nighttime lows ranging 73-85°F. A persistent upper-ridge pattern has delivered above-normal warmth this week, including observed lows of 78-80°F on May 11-13 versus the mid-May climatological average of 73-75°F, fueled by high sea surface temperatures near 85°F and urban heat island effects limiting radiative cooling. Key differentiators include overnight cloud cover from sea-breeze thunderstorms, which could trap heat and boost lows into the low 80s, versus clearer skies allowing dips to the mid-70s; daily NWS updates and new model runs through May 17 will refine guidance ahead of resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트5월 18일 마이애미에서 가장 기온이 낮으신가요?
5월 18일 마이애미에서 가장 기온이 낮으신가요?
73°F 이하 35%
78-79°F 26%
76-77°F 24%
80-81°F 20%
신규
신규
2026.05.18
73°F 이하
35%
74-75°F
12%
76-77°F
24%
78-79°F
26%
80-81°F
20%
82-83°F
20%
84-85°F
6%
86-87°F
2%
88-89°F
4%
90-91°F
1%
92°F 이상
<1%
73°F 이하 35%
78-79°F 26%
76-77°F 24%
80-81°F 20%
신규
신규
2026.05.18
73°F 이하
$0 거래량
35%
74-75°F
$0 거래량
12%
76-77°F
$0 거래량
24%
78-79°F
$5 거래량
26%
80-81°F
$0 거래량
20%
82-83°F
$0 거래량
20%
84-85°F
$0 거래량
6%
86-87°F
$18 거래량
2%
88-89°F
$37 거래량
4%
90-91°F
$340 거래량
1%
92°F 이상
$74 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in the forecast lowest temperature at Miami International Airport on May 18, with implied probabilities evenly spread at 24-26% across bins from 73°F or below to 88-89°F, driven by divergent NOAA GFS and ECMWF model ensembles showing nighttime lows ranging 73-85°F. A persistent upper-ridge pattern has delivered above-normal warmth this week, including observed lows of 78-80°F on May 11-13 versus the mid-May climatological average of 73-75°F, fueled by high sea surface temperatures near 85°F and urban heat island effects limiting radiative cooling. Key differentiators include overnight cloud cover from sea-breeze thunderstorms, which could trap heat and boost lows into the low 80s, versus clearer skies allowing dips to the mid-70s; daily NWS updates and new model runs through May 17 will refine guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
거래량
$474종료일
2026.05.18마켓 개설일
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in the forecast lowest temperature at Miami International Airport on May 18, with implied probabilities evenly spread at 24-26% across bins from 73°F or below to 88-89°F, driven by divergent NOAA GFS and ECMWF model ensembles showing nighttime lows ranging 73-85°F. A persistent upper-ridge pattern has delivered above-normal warmth this week, including observed lows of 78-80°F on May 11-13 versus the mid-May climatological average of 73-75°F, fueled by high sea surface temperatures near 85°F and urban heat island effects limiting radiative cooling. Key differentiators include overnight cloud cover from sea-breeze thunderstorms, which could trap heat and boost lows into the low 80s, versus clearer skies allowing dips to the mid-70s; daily NWS updates and new model runs through May 17 will refine guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$474종료일
2026.05.18마켓 개설일
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in the forecast lowest temperature at Miami International Airport on May 18, with implied probabilities evenly spread at 24-26% across bins from 73°F or below to 88-89°F, driven by divergent NOAA GFS and ECMWF model ensembles showing nighttime lows ranging 73-85°F. A persistent upper-ridge pattern has delivered above-normal warmth this week, including observed lows of 78-80°F on May 11-13 versus the mid-May climatological average of 73-75°F, fueled by high sea surface temperatures near 85°F and urban heat island effects limiting radiative cooling. Key differentiators include overnight cloud cover from sea-breeze thunderstorms, which could trap heat and boost lows into the low 80s, versus clearer skies allowing dips to the mid-70s; daily NWS updates and new model runs through May 17 will refine guidance ahead of resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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