Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature reaching exactly 28°C on May 15, driven by the latest short-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like ECMWF and GFS, which converge on a daytime peak of 28°C amid persistent moderate rain and thick cloud cover from a low-pressure trough over Guangdong Province. Current observations from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station— the market's resolution source—align with this, showing morning temperatures in the low 20s°C rising slowly under humid, overcast conditions cooler than the typical May high of 29.5°C. This positioning reflects high-confidence model agreement on suppressed solar heating, though a realistic challenge could arise from unexpected afternoon clearing allowing a brief 1°C spike to 29°C before evening showers resume; final hourly data releases expected later today could confirm resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Shenzhen on May 15?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 15?
28°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$61,220 Wol.
$61,220 Wol.
May 15, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$61,220 Wol.
$61,220 Wol.
May 15, 2026
20°C or below
$2,465 Wol.
No
21°C
$2,651 Wol.
No
22°C
$1,866 Wol.
No
23°C
$2,076 Wol.
No
24°C
$841 Wol.
No
25°C
$3,046 Wol.
No
26°C
$4,684 Wol.
No
27°C
$9,087 Wol.
No
28°C
$12,682 Wol.
Yes
29°C
$7,537 Wol.
No
30°C or higher
$14,284 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature reaching exactly 28°C on May 15, driven by the latest short-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like ECMWF and GFS, which converge on a daytime peak of 28°C amid persistent moderate rain and thick cloud cover from a low-pressure trough over Guangdong Province. Current observations from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station— the market's resolution source—align with this, showing morning temperatures in the low 20s°C rising slowly under humid, overcast conditions cooler than the typical May high of 29.5°C. This positioning reflects high-confidence model agreement on suppressed solar heating, though a realistic challenge could arise from unexpected afternoon clearing allowing a brief 1°C spike to 29°C before evening showers resume; final hourly data releases expected later today could confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 13, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Wolumen
$61,220Data zakończenia
May 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 13, 2026, 12:09 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature reaching exactly 28°C on May 15, driven by the latest short-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like ECMWF and GFS, which converge on a daytime peak of 28°C amid persistent moderate rain and thick cloud cover from a low-pressure trough over Guangdong Province. Current observations from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station— the market's resolution source—align with this, showing morning temperatures in the low 20s°C rising slowly under humid, overcast conditions cooler than the typical May high of 29.5°C. This positioning reflects high-confidence model agreement on suppressed solar heating, though a realistic challenge could arise from unexpected afternoon clearing allowing a brief 1°C spike to 29°C before evening showers resume; final hourly data releases expected later today could confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$61,220Data zakończenia
May 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 13, 2026, 12:09 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature reaching exactly 28°C on May 15, driven by the latest short-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like ECMWF and GFS, which converge on a daytime peak of 28°C amid persistent moderate rain and thick cloud cover from a low-pressure trough over Guangdong Province. Current observations from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station— the market's resolution source—align with this, showing morning temperatures in the low 20s°C rising slowly under humid, overcast conditions cooler than the typical May high of 29.5°C. This positioning reflects high-confidence model agreement on suppressed solar heating, though a realistic challenge could arise from unexpected afternoon clearing allowing a brief 1°C spike to 29°C before evening showers resume; final hourly data releases expected later today could confirm resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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