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Geopolítica·Petroleiro

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?

icon for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?
Geopolítica·Petroleiro

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?

mai 17

mai 17

20-39 61%

40-59 29%

60-79 4.8%

<20 3.6%

Polymarket

$92,993 Vol.

20-39 61%

40-59 29%

60-79 4.8%

<20 3.6%

Polymarket

$92,993 Vol.

<20

$34,492 Vol.

4%

20-39

$15,109 Vol.

61%

40-59

$17,540 Vol.

29%

60-79

$13,099 Vol.

5%

80+

$12,752 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing Iran hostilities and Tehran's asserted control over the Strait of Hormuz continue to suppress commercial transits, driving trader consensus toward the 20-39 outcome at 61% implied probability. Shipping data through mid-May shows daily volumes stuck in the single digits to low teens, well below the pre-conflict average of roughly 130 vessels, amid selective Iranian permitting, U.S. escort operations, and persistent safety concerns that have left hundreds of tankers and bulk carriers anchored. This constrained flow has tightened global energy supply chains, supporting elevated oil prices and highlighting the waterway's role as a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of seaborne crude. With the week of May 11 resolution drawing near, any short-term easing in regional posture or successful escorted convoys could shift volumes toward the 40-59 bucket at 28%, though sustained low activity reinforces the current market-implied odds.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$92,993
Data de Término
17 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing Iran hostilities and Tehran's asserted control over the Strait of Hormuz continue to suppress commercial transits, driving trader consensus toward the 20-39 outcome at 61% implied probability. Shipping data through mid-May shows daily volumes stuck in the single digits to low teens, well below the pre-conflict average of roughly 130 vessels, amid selective Iranian permitting, U.S. escort operations, and persistent safety concerns that have left hundreds of tankers and bulk carriers anchored. This constrained flow has tightened global energy supply chains, supporting elevated oil prices and highlighting the waterway's role as a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of seaborne crude. With the week of May 11 resolution drawing near, any short-term easing in regional posture or successful escorted convoys could shift volumes toward the 40-59 bucket at 28%, though sustained low activity reinforces the current market-implied odds.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$92,993
Data de Término
17 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "20-39" at 61%, followed by "40-59" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 61¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?" has generated $93K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 8, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?" is "20-39" at 61%, meaning the market assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "40-59" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.