Recent U.S.-facilitated talks between Israel and Lebanon produced a 45-day extension of the April 2026 ceasefire through late June, with additional rounds scheduled in the coming weeks. Lebanon has insisted on a full Israeli troop withdrawal from southern positions without buffer zones, while Israel continues targeted airstrikes and maintains forces amid efforts to curb Hezbollah rearmament. These dynamics, alongside UNIFIL’s mandate running through December 2026, have kept trader-implied odds for a withdrawal by the end of June near single digits. Further progress on disarmament timelines or enforcement mechanisms could shift assessments, though persistent violations and negotiation sticking points continue to weigh on near-term resolution prospects.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoIsrael se retira do Líbano por...?
Israel se retira do Líbano por...?
$1,543,234 Vol.
30 jun 2026
31 de maio
1%
30 de junho
7%
$1,543,234 Vol.
31 de maio
$1,237,290 Vol.
1%
30 de junho
$230,938 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Recent U.S.-facilitated talks between Israel and Lebanon produced a 45-day extension of the April 2026 ceasefire through late June, with additional rounds scheduled in the coming weeks. Lebanon has insisted on a full Israeli troop withdrawal from southern positions without buffer zones, while Israel continues targeted airstrikes and maintains forces amid efforts to curb Hezbollah rearmament. These dynamics, alongside UNIFIL’s mandate running through December 2026, have kept trader-implied odds for a withdrawal by the end of June near single digits. Further progress on disarmament timelines or enforcement mechanisms could shift assessments, though persistent violations and negotiation sticking points continue to weigh on near-term resolution prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$1,543,234Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Recent U.S.-facilitated talks between Israel and Lebanon produced a 45-day extension of the April 2026 ceasefire through late June, with additional rounds scheduled in the coming weeks. Lebanon has insisted on a full Israeli troop withdrawal from southern positions without buffer zones, while Israel continues targeted airstrikes and maintains forces amid efforts to curb Hezbollah rearmament. These dynamics, alongside UNIFIL’s mandate running through December 2026, have kept trader-implied odds for a withdrawal by the end of June near single digits. Further progress on disarmament timelines or enforcement mechanisms could shift assessments, though persistent violations and negotiation sticking points continue to weigh on near-term resolution prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$1,543,234Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-facilitated talks between Israel and Lebanon produced a 45-day extension of the April 2026 ceasefire through late June, with additional rounds scheduled in the coming weeks. Lebanon has insisted on a full Israeli troop withdrawal from southern positions without buffer zones, while Israel continues targeted airstrikes and maintains forces amid efforts to curb Hezbollah rearmament. These dynamics, alongside UNIFIL’s mandate running through December 2026, have kept trader-implied odds for a withdrawal by the end of June near single digits. Further progress on disarmament timelines or enforcement mechanisms could shift assessments, though persistent violations and negotiation sticking points continue to weigh on near-term resolution prospects.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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