Ongoing U.S.-led negotiations with Iran, following the February 2026 joint U.S.-Israel military campaign that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggered a fragile April ceasefire, represent the central driver of trader sentiment on prospects for a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal. Recent developments include Iranian rejection of a U.S. 14-point proposal addressing nuclear enrichment, ballistic missiles, proxy support, and Strait of Hormuz access, alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s insistence that all enriched uranium be removed and enrichment sites dismantled before any lasting agreement. President Trump has described talks as productive yet noted the ceasefire remains under strain, with reports of renewed military preparations on both sides. These factors sustain low implied probabilities for near-term resolution, as core security demands remain unresolved amid ongoing regional tensions involving Hezbollah and potential escalation triggers in the coming months.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$934,203 Vol.
30 jun 2026
May 31
3%
30 de junho
13%
$934,203 Vol.
May 31
$279,067 Vol.
3%
30 de junho
$340,521 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing U.S.-led negotiations with Iran, following the February 2026 joint U.S.-Israel military campaign that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggered a fragile April ceasefire, represent the central driver of trader sentiment on prospects for a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal. Recent developments include Iranian rejection of a U.S. 14-point proposal addressing nuclear enrichment, ballistic missiles, proxy support, and Strait of Hormuz access, alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s insistence that all enriched uranium be removed and enrichment sites dismantled before any lasting agreement. President Trump has described talks as productive yet noted the ceasefire remains under strain, with reports of renewed military preparations on both sides. These factors sustain low implied probabilities for near-term resolution, as core security demands remain unresolved amid ongoing regional tensions involving Hezbollah and potential escalation triggers in the coming months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
Volume
$934,203Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing U.S.-led negotiations with Iran, following the February 2026 joint U.S.-Israel military campaign that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggered a fragile April ceasefire, represent the central driver of trader sentiment on prospects for a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal. Recent developments include Iranian rejection of a U.S. 14-point proposal addressing nuclear enrichment, ballistic missiles, proxy support, and Strait of Hormuz access, alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s insistence that all enriched uranium be removed and enrichment sites dismantled before any lasting agreement. President Trump has described talks as productive yet noted the ceasefire remains under strain, with reports of renewed military preparations on both sides. These factors sustain low implied probabilities for near-term resolution, as core security demands remain unresolved amid ongoing regional tensions involving Hezbollah and potential escalation triggers in the coming months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$934,203Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-led negotiations with Iran, following the February 2026 joint U.S.-Israel military campaign that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggered a fragile April ceasefire, represent the central driver of trader sentiment on prospects for a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal. Recent developments include Iranian rejection of a U.S. 14-point proposal addressing nuclear enrichment, ballistic missiles, proxy support, and Strait of Hormuz access, alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s insistence that all enriched uranium be removed and enrichment sites dismantled before any lasting agreement. President Trump has described talks as productive yet noted the ceasefire remains under strain, with reports of renewed military preparations on both sides. These factors sustain low implied probabilities for near-term resolution, as core security demands remain unresolved amid ongoing regional tensions involving Hezbollah and potential escalation triggers in the coming months.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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