Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15, driven by the latest short-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration projecting an overnight minimum of 20°C amid persistent cloudy conditions and light southeast winds under 12 km/h. These factors inhibit radiative cooling by trapping heat near the surface at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, the market's resolution site. Yesterday's confirmed 20°C low continues a warm mid-May pattern 2–3°C above the 17–19°C climatological average, bolstered by a stable high-pressure ridge over eastern China. A realistic challenge would require unexpected sky clearing overnight, potentially allowing temperatures to dip to 19°C; hourly observations from official stations will clarify as dawn approaches.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
20°C 100.0%
14°C или ниже <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$12,323 Объем
$12,323 Объем
15 мая 2026 г.
14°C или ниже
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
100%
20°C 100.0%
14°C или ниже <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$12,323 Объем
$12,323 Объем
15 мая 2026 г.
14°C или ниже
$966 Объем
<1%
15°C
$887 Объем
<1%
16°C
$942 Объем
<1%
17°C
$889 Объем
<1%
18°C
$990 Объем
<1%
19°C
$1,997 Объем
<1%
20°C
$1,583 Объем
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15, driven by the latest short-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration projecting an overnight minimum of 20°C amid persistent cloudy conditions and light southeast winds under 12 km/h. These factors inhibit radiative cooling by trapping heat near the surface at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, the market's resolution site. Yesterday's confirmed 20°C low continues a warm mid-May pattern 2–3°C above the 17–19°C climatological average, bolstered by a stable high-pressure ridge over eastern China. A realistic challenge would require unexpected sky clearing overnight, potentially allowing temperatures to dip to 19°C; hourly observations from official stations will clarify as dawn approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Объем
$12,323Дата окончания
15 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15, driven by the latest short-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration projecting an overnight minimum of 20°C amid persistent cloudy conditions and light southeast winds under 12 km/h. These factors inhibit radiative cooling by trapping heat near the surface at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, the market's resolution site. Yesterday's confirmed 20°C low continues a warm mid-May pattern 2–3°C above the 17–19°C climatological average, bolstered by a stable high-pressure ridge over eastern China. A realistic challenge would require unexpected sky clearing overnight, potentially allowing temperatures to dip to 19°C; hourly observations from official stations will clarify as dawn approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$12,323Дата окончания
15 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15, driven by the latest short-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration projecting an overnight minimum of 20°C amid persistent cloudy conditions and light southeast winds under 12 km/h. These factors inhibit radiative cooling by trapping heat near the surface at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, the market's resolution site. Yesterday's confirmed 20°C low continues a warm mid-May pattern 2–3°C above the 17–19°C climatological average, bolstered by a stable high-pressure ridge over eastern China. A realistic challenge would require unexpected sky clearing overnight, potentially allowing temperatures to dip to 19°C; hourly observations from official stations will clarify as dawn approaches.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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