**Chris Pappas secured the Democratic nomination for the open New Hampshire U.S. Senate seat on September 8, 2026, defeating Karishma Manzur by a roughly 32-point margin (approximately 65% to 33%).** This outcome aligned with Pappas’s consistent polling leads throughout the cycle, driven by superior name recognition as a four-term representative, endorsements from retiring Senator Jeanne Shaheen and national figures including Kamala Harris, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $15 million compared to Manzur’s under $500,000. Manzur, a political newcomer backed by progressive and Democratic Socialists of America networks, narrowed the gap in late-summer polls by highlighting issues such as health care access and foreign policy but lacked the institutional support or resources to close it fully. The market’s heavy weighting on the 30–35% margin band reflects the reported primary results, with traders viewing the vote totals as largely settled. Remaining uncertainty stems from any potential delays in final certification, minor vote-count adjustments, or disputes over write-ins and low-performing candidates, though these have historically had limited impact on primary margins of this size.