Latest Met Office forecasts for London on May 16 point to an overnight minimum of 7°C, driving the overwhelming market consensus at 99.6% implied probability. Persistent cloud cover and light westerly winds of 5–9 mph are limiting radiative cooling in the boundary layer, preventing the sharper drop that clearer skies would allow. This aligns with mid-May climatological averages near 8°C while recent ensemble runs from the ECMWF and GFS show tight clustering around 6–8°C. Urban heat-island effects in central London further buffer readings relative to outlying stations. Only a late surge in clear-sky radiative losses could realistically push the minimum to 5°C or below, an outcome now assigned just 0.4% probability ahead of final hourly observations.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in London on May 16?
Lowest temperature in London on May 16?
7°C 99.6%
4°C <1%
3°C <1%
5°C <1%
$22,408 ปริมาณ
$22,408 ปริมาณ
May 16, 2026
0°C or below
<1%
1°C
<1%
2°C
<1%
3°C
1%
4°C
1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
100%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C or higher
<1%
7°C 99.6%
4°C <1%
3°C <1%
5°C <1%
$22,408 ปริมาณ
$22,408 ปริมาณ
May 16, 2026
0°C or below
$345 ปริมาณ
<1%
1°C
$910 ปริมาณ
<1%
2°C
$508 ปริมาณ
<1%
3°C
$3,247 ปริมาณ
1%
4°C
$3,727 ปริมาณ
1%
5°C
$874 ปริมาณ
<1%
6°C
$1,285 ปริมาณ
<1%
7°C
$2,065 ปริมาณ
100%
8°C
$827 ปริมาณ
<1%
9°C
$573 ปริมาณ
<1%
10°C or higher
$8,048 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest Met Office forecasts for London on May 16 point to an overnight minimum of 7°C, driving the overwhelming market consensus at 99.6% implied probability. Persistent cloud cover and light westerly winds of 5–9 mph are limiting radiative cooling in the boundary layer, preventing the sharper drop that clearer skies would allow. This aligns with mid-May climatological averages near 8°C while recent ensemble runs from the ECMWF and GFS show tight clustering around 6–8°C. Urban heat-island effects in central London further buffer readings relative to outlying stations. Only a late surge in clear-sky radiative losses could realistically push the minimum to 5°C or below, an outcome now assigned just 0.4% probability ahead of final hourly observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$22,408วันสิ้นสุด
May 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest Met Office forecasts for London on May 16 point to an overnight minimum of 7°C, driving the overwhelming market consensus at 99.6% implied probability. Persistent cloud cover and light westerly winds of 5–9 mph are limiting radiative cooling in the boundary layer, preventing the sharper drop that clearer skies would allow. This aligns with mid-May climatological averages near 8°C while recent ensemble runs from the ECMWF and GFS show tight clustering around 6–8°C. Urban heat-island effects in central London further buffer readings relative to outlying stations. Only a late surge in clear-sky radiative losses could realistically push the minimum to 5°C or below, an outcome now assigned just 0.4% probability ahead of final hourly observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$22,408วันสิ้นสุด
May 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCLatest Met Office forecasts for London on May 16 point to an overnight minimum of 7°C, driving the overwhelming market consensus at 99.6% implied probability. Persistent cloud cover and light westerly winds of 5–9 mph are limiting radiative cooling in the boundary layer, preventing the sharper drop that clearer skies would allow. This aligns with mid-May climatological averages near 8°C while recent ensemble runs from the ECMWF and GFS show tight clustering around 6–8°C. Urban heat-island effects in central London further buffer readings relative to outlying stations. Only a late surge in clear-sky radiative losses could realistically push the minimum to 5°C or below, an outcome now assigned just 0.4% probability ahead of final hourly observations.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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