Current ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models indicate Beijing's May 18 maximum will most likely fall between 25 °C and 27 °C, driven by moderate southerly flow under partly cloudy skies with limited daytime heating. This setup keeps the implied probability tightly clustered around those three outcomes because small shifts in cloud timing or wind speed can alter the peak by 1–2 °C. Mid-May climatology shows average highs near 26–28 °C, so the current consensus sits slightly below normal but within typical spring variability. No strong frontal systems or warm advection are expected before resolution, leaving the market sensitive to the next model runs that will refine afternoon temperatures and confirm whether any brief clearing allows readings to edge toward 28 °C.