Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System models show Shanghai’s May 17 maximum temperature tightly clustered between 26°C and 27°C, driving the market’s near-even split at 42.5% and 37.5% implied probability. Stable atmospheric steering patterns, limited moisture advection, and modest cloud cover have narrowed model spread, with the slight preference for 26°C reflecting greater agreement across higher-resolution runs. Historical mid-May climatology near 25–26°C at the Xujiahui station provides context, while urban heat-island amplification and official China Meteorological Administration thresholds add precision to the resolution criteria. Updated model guidance expected within the next 12 hours could further refine these probabilities ahead of the official daily high measurement.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 17?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 17?
26°C 43%
27°C 36%
28°C 11%
25°C 8%
НОВЕ
$30,202 Обс.
НОВЕ
$30,202 Обс.
May 17, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
8%
26°C
43%
27°C
36%
28°C
11%
29°C
3%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 43%
27°C 36%
28°C 11%
25°C 8%
НОВЕ
$30,202 Обс.
НОВЕ
$30,202 Обс.
May 17, 2026
21°C or below
$1,091 Обс.
<1%
22°C
$4,426 Обс.
<1%
23°C
$4,799 Обс.
<1%
24°C
$3,991 Обс.
1%
25°C
$3,108 Обс.
8%
26°C
$2,346 Обс.
43%
27°C
$2,099 Обс.
36%
28°C
$2,062 Обс.
11%
29°C
$2,675 Обс.
3%
30°C
$1,211 Обс.
<1%
31°C or higher
$2,395 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System models show Shanghai’s May 17 maximum temperature tightly clustered between 26°C and 27°C, driving the market’s near-even split at 42.5% and 37.5% implied probability. Stable atmospheric steering patterns, limited moisture advection, and modest cloud cover have narrowed model spread, with the slight preference for 26°C reflecting greater agreement across higher-resolution runs. Historical mid-May climatology near 25–26°C at the Xujiahui station provides context, while urban heat-island amplification and official China Meteorological Administration thresholds add precision to the resolution criteria. Updated model guidance expected within the next 12 hours could further refine these probabilities ahead of the official daily high measurement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Обсяг
$30,202Дата завершення
May 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System models show Shanghai’s May 17 maximum temperature tightly clustered between 26°C and 27°C, driving the market’s near-even split at 42.5% and 37.5% implied probability. Stable atmospheric steering patterns, limited moisture advection, and modest cloud cover have narrowed model spread, with the slight preference for 26°C reflecting greater agreement across higher-resolution runs. Historical mid-May climatology near 25–26°C at the Xujiahui station provides context, while urban heat-island amplification and official China Meteorological Administration thresholds add precision to the resolution criteria. Updated model guidance expected within the next 12 hours could further refine these probabilities ahead of the official daily high measurement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$30,202Дата завершення
May 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDRecent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System models show Shanghai’s May 17 maximum temperature tightly clustered between 26°C and 27°C, driving the market’s near-even split at 42.5% and 37.5% implied probability. Stable atmospheric steering patterns, limited moisture advection, and modest cloud cover have narrowed model spread, with the slight preference for 26°C reflecting greater agreement across higher-resolution runs. Historical mid-May climatology near 25–26°C at the Xujiahui station provides context, while urban heat-island amplification and official China Meteorological Administration thresholds add precision to the resolution criteria. Updated model guidance expected within the next 12 hours could further refine these probabilities ahead of the official daily high measurement.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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