Idaho’s 2nd congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with the party holding a 93.5 percent implied probability in trader consensus. Incumbent Mike Simpson secured the Republican nomination in the May 2026 primary, continuing a pattern of strong performance in eastern and northern Idaho where Democratic infrastructure is limited and the seat has not elected a Democrat since 2008. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican based on consistent partisan lean and low turnover risk. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen candidate health issue, a significant national political shift affecting turnout, or an unusually high Democratic mobilization, though these remain low-probability events given historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive primary challenges on the Republican side.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоID-02 House Election Winner
ID-02 House Election Winner
$30,364 Обс.
$30,364 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
7%
$30,364 Обс.
$30,364 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$13,015 Обс.
94%
Democratic Party
$17,350 Обс.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Idaho’s 2nd congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with the party holding a 93.5 percent implied probability in trader consensus. Incumbent Mike Simpson secured the Republican nomination in the May 2026 primary, continuing a pattern of strong performance in eastern and northern Idaho where Democratic infrastructure is limited and the seat has not elected a Democrat since 2008. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican based on consistent partisan lean and low turnover risk. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen candidate health issue, a significant national political shift affecting turnout, or an unusually high Democratic mobilization, though these remain low-probability events given historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive primary challenges on the Republican side.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Обсяг
$30,364Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Idaho’s 2nd congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with the party holding a 93.5 percent implied probability in trader consensus. Incumbent Mike Simpson secured the Republican nomination in the May 2026 primary, continuing a pattern of strong performance in eastern and northern Idaho where Democratic infrastructure is limited and the seat has not elected a Democrat since 2008. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican based on consistent partisan lean and low turnover risk. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen candidate health issue, a significant national political shift affecting turnout, or an unusually high Democratic mobilization, though these remain low-probability events given historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive primary challenges on the Republican side.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$30,364Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Idaho’s 2nd congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with the party holding a 93.5 percent implied probability in trader consensus. Incumbent Mike Simpson secured the Republican nomination in the May 2026 primary, continuing a pattern of strong performance in eastern and northern Idaho where Democratic infrastructure is limited and the seat has not elected a Democrat since 2008. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican based on consistent partisan lean and low turnover risk. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen candidate health issue, a significant national political shift affecting turnout, or an unusually high Democratic mobilization, though these remain low-probability events given historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive primary challenges on the Republican side.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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