Incumbent Democrat Mike Levin maintains a commanding lead in California's 49th congressional district, where the Cook Partisan Voting Index stands at D+7 and independent forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic. His four prior victories, including a 52 percent share in 2024, combined with superior fundraising of roughly $2.7 million and $1.4 million cash on hand as of late March, have reinforced structural advantages ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Republican primary contenders Armen Kurdian and Star Parker have raised far less and lack comparable visibility in the San Diego-Orange County coastal seat. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects these fundamentals and historical incumbency retention rates, though a national Republican midterm surge, personal scandal, or unexpected primary upset could still alter the general election trajectory in November.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-11-03
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
7%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
Democratic Party
$2,107 交易量
94%
Republican Party
$742 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Levin maintains a commanding lead in California's 49th congressional district, where the Cook Partisan Voting Index stands at D+7 and independent forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic. His four prior victories, including a 52 percent share in 2024, combined with superior fundraising of roughly $2.7 million and $1.4 million cash on hand as of late March, have reinforced structural advantages ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Republican primary contenders Armen Kurdian and Star Parker have raised far less and lack comparable visibility in the San Diego-Orange County coastal seat. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects these fundamentals and historical incumbency retention rates, though a national Republican midterm surge, personal scandal, or unexpected primary upset could still alter the general election trajectory in November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$2,848結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Levin maintains a commanding lead in California's 49th congressional district, where the Cook Partisan Voting Index stands at D+7 and independent forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic. His four prior victories, including a 52 percent share in 2024, combined with superior fundraising of roughly $2.7 million and $1.4 million cash on hand as of late March, have reinforced structural advantages ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Republican primary contenders Armen Kurdian and Star Parker have raised far less and lack comparable visibility in the San Diego-Orange County coastal seat. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects these fundamentals and historical incumbency retention rates, though a national Republican midterm surge, personal scandal, or unexpected primary upset could still alter the general election trajectory in November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$2,848結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mike Levin maintains a commanding lead in California's 49th congressional district, where the Cook Partisan Voting Index stands at D+7 and independent forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic. His four prior victories, including a 52 percent share in 2024, combined with superior fundraising of roughly $2.7 million and $1.4 million cash on hand as of late March, have reinforced structural advantages ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Republican primary contenders Armen Kurdian and Star Parker have raised far less and lack comparable visibility in the San Diego-Orange County coastal seat. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects these fundamentals and historical incumbency retention rates, though a national Republican midterm surge, personal scandal, or unexpected primary upset could still alter the general election trajectory in November.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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