California’s 46th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic lean rooted in voter registration patterns and repeated double-digit margins in recent House contests, which shapes the strong trader consensus behind the party’s nominee. Limited Republican recruitment, modest fundraising on that side, and demographic stability across Orange County suburbs have kept national attention low and preserved the wide gap in implied probabilities. Historical base rates for seats with comparable partisan indexes show rare flips absent major scandals or national waves. A credible GOP challenger or significant midterm swing could narrow the outcome, though structural factors continue to favor Democratic retention barring unforeseen developments before the 2026 election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$11,084 交易量
$11,084 交易量
2026-11-03
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
6%
$11,084 交易量
$11,084 交易量
2026-11-03
Democratic Party
$2,449 交易量
93%
Republican Party
$8,635 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 46th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic lean rooted in voter registration patterns and repeated double-digit margins in recent House contests, which shapes the strong trader consensus behind the party’s nominee. Limited Republican recruitment, modest fundraising on that side, and demographic stability across Orange County suburbs have kept national attention low and preserved the wide gap in implied probabilities. Historical base rates for seats with comparable partisan indexes show rare flips absent major scandals or national waves. A credible GOP challenger or significant midterm swing could narrow the outcome, though structural factors continue to favor Democratic retention barring unforeseen developments before the 2026 election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$11,084結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 46th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic lean rooted in voter registration patterns and repeated double-digit margins in recent House contests, which shapes the strong trader consensus behind the party’s nominee. Limited Republican recruitment, modest fundraising on that side, and demographic stability across Orange County suburbs have kept national attention low and preserved the wide gap in implied probabilities. Historical base rates for seats with comparable partisan indexes show rare flips absent major scandals or national waves. A credible GOP challenger or significant midterm swing could narrow the outcome, though structural factors continue to favor Democratic retention barring unforeseen developments before the 2026 election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$11,084結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California’s 46th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic lean rooted in voter registration patterns and repeated double-digit margins in recent House contests, which shapes the strong trader consensus behind the party’s nominee. Limited Republican recruitment, modest fundraising on that side, and demographic stability across Orange County suburbs have kept national attention low and preserved the wide gap in implied probabilities. Historical base rates for seats with comparable partisan indexes show rare flips absent major scandals or national waves. A credible GOP challenger or significant midterm swing could narrow the outcome, though structural factors continue to favor Democratic retention barring unforeseen developments before the 2026 election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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