Persistent subtropical high pressure and southerly flow across Central Texas produced clear skies and strong daytime heating on August 12, 2026, driving Austin’s official high into the 100–101°F range per National Weather Service observations. This aligns with the market’s 100% implied probability for that bin and exceeds the month’s climatological average high of 97–99°F. Model consensus from prior days had centered on 100–102°F under continued dry conditions and minimal cloud cover, with limited variability in guidance reducing upside or downside risk. Scenarios that could have challenged the outcome, such as unexpected Gulf moisture triggering afternoon convection or a shift in the ridge axis, did not materialize, leaving the measured maximum firmly within the dominant interval.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月12日奧斯汀的最高溫度？
8月12日奧斯汀的最高溫度？
100-101°F 100.0%
華氏91度或以下 <1%
92-93°F <1%
94-95°F <1%
$27,285 交易量
$27,285 交易量
2026-08-12
華氏91度或以下
否
92-93°F
否
94-95°F
否
96-97°F
否
98-99°F
否
100-101°F
是
102-103°F
否
104-105°F
否
106-107°F
否
108-109°F
否
華氏110度或以上
否
100-101°F 100.0%
華氏91度或以下 <1%
92-93°F <1%
94-95°F <1%
$27,285 交易量
$27,285 交易量
2026-08-12
華氏91度或以下
$610 交易量
否
92-93°F
$2,739 交易量
否
94-95°F
$2,870 交易量
否
96-97°F
$1,286 交易量
否
98-99°F
$4,084 交易量
否
100-101°F
$7,159 交易量
是
102-103°F
$3,182 交易量
否
104-105°F
$2,101 交易量
否
106-107°F
$1,694 交易量
否
108-109°F
$1,001 交易量
否
華氏110度或以上
$559 交易量
否
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent subtropical high pressure and southerly flow across Central Texas produced clear skies and strong daytime heating on August 12, 2026, driving Austin’s official high into the 100–101°F range per National Weather Service observations. This aligns with the market’s 100% implied probability for that bin and exceeds the month’s climatological average high of 97–99°F. Model consensus from prior days had centered on 100–102°F under continued dry conditions and minimal cloud cover, with limited variability in guidance reducing upside or downside risk. Scenarios that could have challenged the outcome, such as unexpected Gulf moisture triggering afternoon convection or a shift in the ridge axis, did not materialize, leaving the measured maximum firmly within the dominant interval.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
交易量
$27,285結束日期
2026-08-12市場開放時間
Aug 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent subtropical high pressure and southerly flow across Central Texas produced clear skies and strong daytime heating on August 12, 2026, driving Austin’s official high into the 100–101°F range per National Weather Service observations. This aligns with the market’s 100% implied probability for that bin and exceeds the month’s climatological average high of 97–99°F. Model consensus from prior days had centered on 100–102°F under continued dry conditions and minimal cloud cover, with limited variability in guidance reducing upside or downside risk. Scenarios that could have challenged the outcome, such as unexpected Gulf moisture triggering afternoon convection or a shift in the ridge axis, did not materialize, leaving the measured maximum firmly within the dominant interval.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$27,285結束日期
2026-08-12市場開放時間
Aug 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Persistent subtropical high pressure and southerly flow across Central Texas produced clear skies and strong daytime heating on August 12, 2026, driving Austin’s official high into the 100–101°F range per National Weather Service observations. This aligns with the market’s 100% implied probability for that bin and exceeds the month’s climatological average high of 97–99°F. Model consensus from prior days had centered on 100–102°F under continued dry conditions and minimal cloud cover, with limited variability in guidance reducing upside or downside risk. Scenarios that could have challenged the outcome, such as unexpected Gulf moisture triggering afternoon convection or a shift in the ridge axis, did not materialize, leaving the measured maximum firmly within the dominant interval.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions