Recent high-resolution model runs from ECMWF and GFS maintain a strong subtropical ridge over northern Italy, advecting warm air masses that support daily maxima near 32–33 °C in Milan on September 6. Ensemble spreads cluster tightly around these values, with limited spread toward 34 °C or below 31 °C, reflecting stable high-pressure conditions and light easterly flow that moderates peak heating. Traders have priced 32 °C as the modal outcome at 48 % implied probability because the latest deterministic guidance and historical analogs for early-September heat events align most closely with this threshold, while small model disagreements on boundary-layer mixing and timing of any weak frontal approach introduce modest uncertainty around the exact maximum.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月6日米蘭的最高溫度？
9月6日米蘭的最高溫度？
32°C 48%
31°C 30%
33°C 10%
34°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-09-06
27°C或以下
3%
28°C
2%
29°C
6%
30°C
8%
31°C
30%
32°C
48%
33°C
13%
34°C
10%
35°C
5%
36°C
3%
37°C或更高
3%
32°C 48%
31°C 30%
33°C 10%
34°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-09-06
27°C或以下
$0 交易量
3%
28°C
$0 交易量
2%
29°C
$0 交易量
6%
30°C
$0 交易量
8%
31°C
$163 交易量
30%
32°C
$98 交易量
48%
33°C
$5 交易量
13%
34°C
$6 交易量
10%
35°C
$11 交易量
5%
36°C
$0 交易量
3%
37°C或更高
$0 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent high-resolution model runs from ECMWF and GFS maintain a strong subtropical ridge over northern Italy, advecting warm air masses that support daily maxima near 32–33 °C in Milan on September 6. Ensemble spreads cluster tightly around these values, with limited spread toward 34 °C or below 31 °C, reflecting stable high-pressure conditions and light easterly flow that moderates peak heating. Traders have priced 32 °C as the modal outcome at 48 % implied probability because the latest deterministic guidance and historical analogs for early-September heat events align most closely with this threshold, while small model disagreements on boundary-layer mixing and timing of any weak frontal approach introduce modest uncertainty around the exact maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$283結束日期
2026-09-06市場開放時間
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent high-resolution model runs from ECMWF and GFS maintain a strong subtropical ridge over northern Italy, advecting warm air masses that support daily maxima near 32–33 °C in Milan on September 6. Ensemble spreads cluster tightly around these values, with limited spread toward 34 °C or below 31 °C, reflecting stable high-pressure conditions and light easterly flow that moderates peak heating. Traders have priced 32 °C as the modal outcome at 48 % implied probability because the latest deterministic guidance and historical analogs for early-September heat events align most closely with this threshold, while small model disagreements on boundary-layer mixing and timing of any weak frontal approach introduce modest uncertainty around the exact maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$283結束日期
2026-09-06市場開放時間
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent high-resolution model runs from ECMWF and GFS maintain a strong subtropical ridge over northern Italy, advecting warm air masses that support daily maxima near 32–33 °C in Milan on September 6. Ensemble spreads cluster tightly around these values, with limited spread toward 34 °C or below 31 °C, reflecting stable high-pressure conditions and light easterly flow that moderates peak heating. Traders have priced 32 °C as the modal outcome at 48 % implied probability because the latest deterministic guidance and historical analogs for early-September heat events align most closely with this threshold, while small model disagreements on boundary-layer mixing and timing of any weak frontal approach introduce modest uncertainty around the exact maximum.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions