**Trader sentiment for Seoul/Incheon's August 26 high temperature centers on the tight spread between 30°C and 31°C (combined ~81% implied probability), reflecting official forecasts clustered in that narrow band.** Current guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and international models indicates a daytime maximum near 30–32°C under mostly cloudy to overcast skies, with light winds and high humidity typical of late summer on the Korean peninsula. Incheon’s coastal location introduces moderating sea-breeze effects that can cap afternoon peaks compared with inland Seoul stations. Recent cooling from early-August heatwave extremes (when records exceeded 40°C in parts of the country) has lowered climatological baselines, but persistent warm, moist air masses still support upper-80s°F readings. Key differentiating variables include the exact timing and extent of cloud cover, which reduces incoming solar radiation, versus any clearing that could allow brief spikes toward 31–32°C. Model consensus and short-range updates in the final 24–48 hours will likely determine whether the market resolves at 30°C or edges to 31°C.