Recent numerical weather prediction models and official guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration indicate a high around 32°C in Shanghai on August 26, 2026, under the influence of subtropical high pressure with moderate humidity and limited cloud cover or showers. This aligns with climatological norms for late August, when daily maxima typically range 30–33°C amid the East Asian summer monsoon transition. Ensemble forecasts show tight clustering near this value, with only modest spread from variable steering flows or localized convection that could nudge readings one degree either way. Traders have priced in this consensus, assigning the highest probability to 32°C while assigning lower odds to outliers, reflecting the narrow uncertainty band typical of short-range temperature markets one day ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月26日上海最高溫度?
32°C 60%
31°C 20%
33°C 16%
34°C 4%
$12,665 交易量
$12,665 交易量
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
3%
31°C
20%
32°C
60%
33°C
16%
34°C
4%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 60%
31°C 20%
33°C 16%
34°C 4%
$12,665 交易量
$12,665 交易量
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
3%
31°C
20%
32°C
60%
33°C
16%
34°C
4%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent numerical weather prediction models and official guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration indicate a high around 32°C in Shanghai on August 26, 2026, under the influence of subtropical high pressure with moderate humidity and limited cloud cover or showers. This aligns with climatological norms for late August, when daily maxima typically range 30–33°C amid the East Asian summer monsoon transition. Ensemble forecasts show tight clustering near this value, with only modest spread from variable steering flows or localized convection that could nudge readings one degree either way. Traders have priced in this consensus, assigning the highest probability to 32°C while assigning lower odds to outliers, reflecting the narrow uncertainty band typical of short-range temperature markets one day ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions